Results: Incyte Corporation Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.4b, some 8.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$2.11, 58% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Incyte's 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.48b in 2026. This would be a meaningful 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.3% to US$6.59. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.07 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Incyte

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$89.10, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Incyte, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$119 and the most bearish at US$70.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Incyte shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that Incyte is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Incyte following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$89.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Incyte. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Incyte analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Incyte's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.