Harmony Biosciences (HRMY): Revisiting Valuation Following Raised 2025 Revenue Guidance and Strong WAKIX Growth

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) has raised its 2025 revenue guidance after reporting a 29% year-over-year increase in net revenue for Q3, driven by growth in its main product, WAKIX.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

After a challenging year marked by a total shareholder return of -13.1%, Harmony Biosciences is showing signs of renewed momentum. The share price jumped 12.7% in a single day following its upbeat guidance, hinting that optimism around WAKIX’s growth is starting to shift sentiment. While longer-term returns remain weak, the recent sharp rally suggests investors may be seeing a turnaround story taking shape.

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With upbeat forecasts and a rallying share price, the key question now is whether Harmony Biosciences remains attractively valued or if the recent optimism means future growth is already reflected in the stock. This leaves investors to wonder if there is a real buying opportunity here.

Most Popular Narrative: 33.6% Undervalued

Harmony Biosciences is trading at a notable discount to its narrative fair value of $44.55, with the last close at $29.60. This gap between market price and the most followed narrative sets the scene for a potentially compelling re-rating, especially given the company’s strategic position in sleep disorder and rare disease markets.

Expanding addressable markets and a diversified pipeline position Harmony for sustained revenue growth with reduced dependence on any single product. Strong commercial execution and strategic capital management enable continued R&D investment, life cycle extension, and resilience against future competition.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what assumptions are driving this bold valuation call? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue climbs, margin expansion, and a profit multiple that could catch even industry veterans off guard. But what’s the linchpin behind these projections? Tap in to discover the playbook behind the fair value estimate and see what’s tipping the scale so dramatically.

Result: Fair Value of $44.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, setbacks with ZYN002 and heavy reliance on WAKIX highlight just how vulnerable Harmony’s growth narrative remains to pipeline disappointments and shifting market dynamics.

Find out about the key risks to this Harmony Biosciences Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Harmony Biosciences Holdings Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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