Stock Analysis

The Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

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Shareholders might have noticed that Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to US$14.07 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$202m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$1.08 per share, roughly in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Evolus

NasdaqGM:EOLS Earnings and Revenue Growth March 10th 2024

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Evolus are now predicting revenues of US$263.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 41% to US$0.63. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$263.5m and US$0.66 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

The average price target held steady at US$22.29, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Evolus, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 30% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 46% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Evolus is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Evolus going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Evolus (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Evolus is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.