Denali Therapeutics Inc.

NasdaqGS:DNLI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.0b

Denali Therapeutics Valuation

Is DNLI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DNLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$228.39
Fair Value
90.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DNLI ($21.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($228.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DNLI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DNLI?

Key metric: As DNLI is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for DNLI. This is calculated by dividing DNLI's market cap by their current book value.
What is DNLI's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.3x
BookUS$1.32b
Market CapUS$3.05b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does DNLI's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for DNLI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.4x
VSBC VitaSpring Biomedical
n/an/aUS$20.7m
APGE Apogee Therapeutics
3.8x-18.9%US$2.8b
VERA Vera Therapeutics
9.2x36.4%US$2.7b
MLTX MoonLake Immunotherapeutics
6.2x35.6%US$3.2b
DNLI Denali Therapeutics
2.3x32.8%US$3.0b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: DNLI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the peer average (6.4x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does DNLI's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

62 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GRAL GRAIL
0.2x35.7%US$600.45m
LYEL Lyell Immunopharma
0.4x-14.9%US$193.85m
NKTX Nkarta
0.4x-8.3%US$170.78m
ACET Adicet Bio
0.4x3.1%US$80.92m
DNLI 2.3xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies77PB01.63.24.86.48+
62 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: DNLI is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.3x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DNLI's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DNLI PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.3x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate DNLI's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DNLI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$21.25
US$39.67
+86.7%
36.5%US$87.00US$24.00n/a15
Jan ’26US$20.38
US$42.77
+109.9%
34.4%US$90.00US$28.00n/a13
Dec ’25US$25.00
US$42.08
+68.3%
36.1%US$90.00US$28.00n/a13
Nov ’25US$27.05
US$41.15
+52.1%
39.5%US$90.00US$22.00n/a13
Oct ’25US$28.67
US$39.21
+36.8%
40.5%US$90.00US$22.00n/a14
Sep ’25US$24.44
US$38.86
+59.0%
41.5%US$90.00US$22.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$23.33
US$38.47
+64.9%
44.3%US$95.00US$22.00n/a15
Jul ’25US$22.01
US$38.67
+75.7%
43.7%US$95.00US$22.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$18.56
US$38.67
+108.3%
43.7%US$95.00US$22.00n/a15
May ’25US$16.16
US$40.27
+149.2%
43.1%US$95.00US$24.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$20.56
US$42.80
+108.2%
43.7%US$95.00US$24.00n/a15
Mar ’25US$20.86
US$43.13
+106.8%
42.7%US$95.00US$26.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$16.39
US$46.67
+184.7%
45.3%US$105.00US$26.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$21.46
US$46.67
+117.5%
45.3%US$105.00US$26.00US$20.3815
Dec ’24US$18.97
US$50.31
+165.2%
40.5%US$105.00US$26.00US$25.0016
Nov ’24US$19.03
US$52.27
+174.7%
37.7%US$105.00US$26.00US$27.0515
Oct ’24US$20.63
US$55.60
+169.5%
37.3%US$105.00US$26.00US$28.6715
Sep ’24US$23.31
US$56.86
+143.9%
36.7%US$105.00US$26.00US$24.4414
Aug ’24US$28.32
US$58.93
+108.1%
34.7%US$105.00US$30.00US$23.3314
Jul ’24US$29.51
US$58.93
+99.7%
34.7%US$105.00US$30.00US$22.0114
Jun ’24US$30.92
US$58.93
+90.6%
33.9%US$105.00US$30.00US$18.5615
May ’24US$25.80
US$59.67
+131.3%
34.0%US$105.00US$32.00US$16.1615
Apr ’24US$23.04
US$59.69
+159.1%
32.9%US$105.00US$32.00US$20.5616
Mar ’24US$27.30
US$60.94
+123.2%
33.0%US$105.00US$36.00US$20.8616
Feb ’24US$30.88
US$63.75
+106.4%
31.1%US$105.00US$36.00US$16.3916
Jan ’24US$27.81
US$64.33
+131.3%
31.3%US$105.00US$36.00US$21.4615
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
US$39.67
Fair Value
46.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/08 05:21
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/08 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Denali Therapeutics Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joel BeattyBaird
Caroline PalomequeBerenberg
Tazeen AhmadBofA Global Research