Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.

NasdaqGS:DAWN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.3b

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Valuation

Is DAWN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DAWN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DAWN ($12.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($59.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DAWN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DAWN?

Key metric: As DAWN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for DAWN. This is calculated by dividing DAWN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is DAWN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio12.4x
SalesUS$101.95m
Market CapUS$1.30b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does DAWN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for DAWN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.6x
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics
24.1x45.3%US$2.2b
PNT POINT Biopharma Global
5.5x22.6%US$1.3b
GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics
28.8x40.0%US$433.7m
ARQT Arcutis Biotherapeutics
12x34.8%US$1.7b
DAWN Day One Biopharmaceuticals
12.4x38.1%US$1.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: DAWN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.4x) compared to the peer average (17.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does DAWN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

134 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BIIB Biogen
2.3x1.3%US$22.05b
MRNA Moderna
3x5.8%US$15.44b
INCY Incyte
3.2x8.9%US$13.34b
EXAS Exact Sciences
3.9x9.1%US$10.65b
DAWN 12.4xIndustry Avg. 10.3xNo. of Companies134PS01632486480+
134 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: DAWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.4x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (10.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DAWN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DAWN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio12.4x
Fair PS Ratio13.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: DAWN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (13.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DAWN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.58
US$36.44
+189.7%
15.3%US$48.00US$28.00n/a9
Dec ’25US$13.93
US$37.00
+165.6%
15.0%US$48.00US$28.00n/a9
Nov ’25US$14.65
US$36.67
+150.3%
15.0%US$48.00US$28.00n/a9
Oct ’25US$14.00
US$36.44
+160.3%
16.2%US$45.00US$24.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$13.84
US$36.44
+163.3%
16.2%US$45.00US$24.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$14.17
US$37.22
+162.7%
18.3%US$50.00US$24.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$13.58
US$35.89
+164.3%
27.4%US$49.00US$11.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$13.27
US$35.89
+170.5%
27.4%US$49.00US$11.00n/a9
May ’25US$17.69
US$36.89
+108.5%
29.9%US$50.00US$10.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$16.16
US$35.00
+116.6%
30.3%US$50.00US$10.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$17.46
US$34.89
+99.8%
30.5%US$50.00US$10.00n/a9
Feb ’25US$15.49
US$36.88
+138.1%
33.1%US$50.00US$10.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$14.60
US$36.88
+152.6%
33.1%US$50.00US$10.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$12.26
US$36.88
+200.8%
33.1%US$50.00US$10.00US$13.938
Nov ’24US$11.84
US$38.25
+223.1%
32.9%US$54.00US$10.00US$14.658
Oct ’24US$12.27
US$38.00
+209.7%
33.9%US$54.00US$9.00US$14.008
Sep ’24US$13.97
US$38.00
+172.0%
33.9%US$54.00US$9.00US$13.848
Aug ’24US$13.35
US$39.38
+194.9%
36.7%US$63.00US$9.00US$14.178
Jul ’24US$11.94
US$40.13
+236.1%
35.6%US$63.00US$9.00US$13.588
Jun ’24US$13.65
US$39.50
+189.4%
35.3%US$63.00US$9.00US$13.278
May ’24US$14.47
US$40.00
+176.4%
35.1%US$63.00US$9.00US$17.698
Apr ’24US$13.37
US$43.75
+227.2%
20.3%US$64.00US$34.00US$16.168
Mar ’24US$18.58
US$43.50
+134.1%
19.2%US$62.00US$34.00US$17.468
Feb ’24US$21.53
US$44.00
+104.4%
20.0%US$62.00US$34.00US$15.497
Jan ’24US$21.52
US$37.86
+75.9%
9.7%US$45.00US$34.00US$14.607
Dec ’23US$21.22
US$36.25
+70.8%
6.3%US$40.00US$34.00US$12.264

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 22:47
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. is covered by 13 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research
Naureen QuibriaCapital One Securities, Inc.
Andrea NewkirkGoldman Sachs