BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.

NasdaqCM:BTAI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$33.5m

BioXcel Therapeutics Valuation

Is BTAI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BTAI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BTAI ($1.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($124.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BTAI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BTAI?

Key metric: As BTAI is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for BTAI. This is calculated by dividing BTAI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is BTAI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio46.5x
SalesUS$752.00k
Market CapUS$33.46m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BTAI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for BTAI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.1x
CELU Celularity
0.8xn/aUS$31.9m
DYAI Dyadic International
10.2x46.83%US$31.7m
ICCC ImmuCell
2xn/aUS$55.3m
CUE Cue Biopharma
3.4x53.06%US$23.8m
BTAI BioXcel Therapeutics
46.5x55.25%US$33.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BTAI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (46.5x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does BTAI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

122 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BIIB Biogen
2.6x-1.44%US$25.88b
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical
3.7x5.77%US$11.33b
PTCT PTC Therapeutics
3.4x1.28%US$6.12b
ALKS Alkermes
3x8.02%US$4.59b
BTAI 46.5xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies122PS01632486480+
122 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BTAI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (46.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (11.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BTAI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BTAI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio46.5x
Fair PS Ratio3.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BTAI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (46.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BTAI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1.60
US$16.75
+946.88%
81.57%US$38.00US$1.00n/a4
Dec ’26US$2.06
US$16.75
+713.11%
81.57%US$38.00US$1.00n/a4
Nov ’26US$2.05
US$23.75
+1,058.54%
105.78%US$66.00US$1.00n/a4
Oct ’26US$2.57
US$19.80
+670.43%
120.30%US$66.00US$1.00n/a5
Sep ’26US$4.05
US$19.40
+379.01%
124.21%US$66.00US$1.00n/a5
Aug ’26US$1.37
US$19.00
+1,286.86%
127.71%US$66.00US$1.00n/a5
Jul ’26US$1.97
US$23.25
+1,080.20%
109.29%US$66.00US$1.00n/a4
Jun ’26US$1.18
US$43.00
+3,544.07%
75.45%US$80.00US$1.00n/a3
May ’26US$1.78
US$36.25
+1,942.25%
83.95%US$80.00US$1.00n/a4
Apr ’26US$1.92
US$36.25
+1,788.02%
83.95%US$80.00US$1.00n/a4
Mar ’26US$2.16
US$37.00
+1,612.96%
79.95%US$80.00US$4.00n/a4
Feb ’26US$5.22
US$37.00
+609.36%
79.95%US$80.00US$4.00n/a4
Jan ’26US$5.98
US$80.00
+1,237.26%
48.99%US$112.00US$16.00US$1.604
Dec ’25US$6.54
US$67.20
+927.65%
64.59%US$112.00US$16.00US$2.065
Nov ’25US$10.29
US$67.20
+553.09%
64.59%US$112.00US$16.00US$2.055
Oct ’25US$8.98
US$73.60
+719.23%
63.90%US$112.00US$16.00US$2.575
Sep ’25US$9.84
US$73.60
+647.97%
63.90%US$112.00US$16.00US$4.055
Aug ’25US$16.48
US$100.80
+511.65%
37.43%US$160.00US$56.00US$1.375
Jul ’25US$18.72
US$100.80
+438.46%
37.43%US$160.00US$56.00US$1.975
Jun ’25US$28.96
US$116.00
+300.55%
41.71%US$192.00US$56.00US$1.186
May ’25US$40.64
US$116.00
+185.43%
41.71%US$192.00US$56.00US$1.786
Apr ’25US$45.12
US$118.67
+163.00%
43.06%US$192.00US$56.00US$1.926
Mar ’25US$51.36
US$152.00
+195.95%
51.48%US$288.00US$64.00US$2.166
Feb ’25US$50.88
US$168.00
+230.19%
39.94%US$288.00US$64.00US$5.226
Jan ’25US$47.20
US$168.00
+255.93%
39.94%US$288.00US$64.00US$5.986
US$16.75
Fair Value
90.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/12/31 19:07
End of Day Share Price 2025/12/31 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anita DushyanthBerenberg
Guyn KimBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research