BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.

NasdaqCM:BTAI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.2m

BioXcel Therapeutics Valuation

Is BTAI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BTAI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$144.42
Fair Value
98.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BTAI ($2.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($144.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BTAI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BTAI?

Key metric: As BTAI is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for BTAI. This is calculated by dividing BTAI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is BTAI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.5x
SalesUS$2.28m
Market CapUS$9.24m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BTAI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for BTAI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.3x
PSTV Plus Therapeutics
1.3x64.0%US$7.2m
SBFM Sunshine Biopharma
0.1x109.9%US$5.0m
OMGA Omega Therapeutics
1.3x-92.6%US$6.0m
SPRB Spruce Biosciences
2.3x-36.9%US$16.4m
BTAI BioXcel Therapeutics
3.5x53.9%US$9.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BTAI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x) compared to the peer average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does BTAI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

137 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x21.2%
BTAI BioXcel Therapeutics
 3.5x53.9%US$9.24m
BIIB Biogen
2.1x1.0%US$20.77b
INCY Incyte
3x4.2%US$13.22b
BTAI 3.5xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies137PS01632486480+
137 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x29.5%
BTAI BioXcel Therapeutics
 3.5x26.9%US$9.24m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BTAI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (10.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BTAI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BTAI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.5x
Fair PS Ratio4.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BTAI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BTAI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$2.55
US$37.00
+1,351.0%
79.9%US$80.00US$4.00n/a4
Feb ’26US$5.22
US$37.00
+609.4%
79.9%US$80.00US$4.00n/a4
Jan ’26US$5.98
US$80.00
+1,237.3%
49.0%US$112.00US$16.00n/a4
Dec ’25US$6.54
US$67.20
+927.6%
64.6%US$112.00US$16.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$10.29
US$67.20
+553.1%
64.6%US$112.00US$16.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$8.98
US$73.60
+719.2%
63.9%US$112.00US$16.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$9.84
US$73.60
+648.0%
63.9%US$112.00US$16.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$16.48
US$100.80
+511.7%
37.4%US$160.00US$56.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$18.72
US$100.80
+438.5%
37.4%US$160.00US$56.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$28.96
US$116.00
+300.6%
41.7%US$192.00US$56.00n/a6
May ’25US$40.64
US$116.00
+185.4%
41.7%US$192.00US$56.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$45.12
US$118.67
+163.0%
43.1%US$192.00US$56.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$51.36
US$152.00
+196.0%
51.5%US$288.00US$64.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$50.88
US$168.00
+230.2%
39.9%US$288.00US$64.00US$5.226
Jan ’25US$47.20
US$168.00
+255.9%
39.9%US$288.00US$64.00US$5.986
Dec ’24US$62.24
US$168.00
+169.9%
39.9%US$288.00US$64.00US$6.546
Nov ’24US$70.24
US$160.00
+127.8%
50.4%US$320.00US$64.00US$10.297
Oct ’24US$40.48
US$202.00
+399.0%
66.5%US$496.00US$64.00US$8.988
Sep ’24US$61.28
US$202.00
+229.6%
66.5%US$496.00US$64.00US$9.848
Aug ’24US$120.00
US$768.00
+540.0%
43.2%US$1,200.00US$192.00US$16.488
Jul ’24US$106.56
US$724.80
+580.2%
52.4%US$1,200.00US$208.00US$18.7210
Jun ’24US$290.40
US$820.80
+182.6%
35.9%US$1,200.00US$384.00US$28.9610
May ’24US$332.96
US$828.80
+148.9%
35.0%US$1,200.00US$352.00US$40.6410
Apr ’24US$298.56
US$833.60
+179.2%
34.6%US$1,200.00US$352.00US$45.1210
Mar ’24US$509.12
US$878.40
+72.5%
37.5%US$1,312.00US$320.00US$51.3610
Feb ’24US$471.68
US$742.40
+57.4%
53.2%US$1,312.00US$320.00US$50.8810
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts
US$37.00
Fair Value
93.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/11 06:43
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/11 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anita DushyanthBerenberg
Guyn KimBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research