We Think Black Diamond Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BDTX) Needs To Drive Business Growth Carefully

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 16, 2022
NasdaqGS:BDTX
Source: Shutterstock

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So should Black Diamond Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BDTX) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

View our latest analysis for Black Diamond Therapeutics

When Might Black Diamond Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn. When Black Diamond Therapeutics last reported its balance sheet in September 2021, it had zero debt and cash worth US$235m. In the last year, its cash burn was US$94m. So it had a cash runway of about 2.5 years from September 2021. Arguably, that's a prudent and sensible length of runway to have. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:BDTX Debt to Equity History January 16th 2022

How Is Black Diamond Therapeutics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Black Diamond Therapeutics didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. In fact, it ramped its spending strongly over the last year, increasing cash burn by 115%. It's fair to say that sort of rate of increase cannot be maintained for very long, without putting pressure on the balance sheet. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

Can Black Diamond Therapeutics Raise More Cash Easily?

While Black Diamond Therapeutics does have a solid cash runway, its cash burn trajectory may have some shareholders thinking ahead to when the company may need to raise more cash. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Black Diamond Therapeutics' cash burn of US$94m is about 61% of its US$154m market capitalisation. Given how large that cash burn is, relative to the market value of the entire company, we'd consider it to be a high risk stock, with the real possibility of extreme dilution.

Is Black Diamond Therapeutics' Cash Burn A Worry?

On this analysis of Black Diamond Therapeutics' cash burn, we think its cash runway was reassuring, while its cash burn relative to its market cap has us a bit worried. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 3 warning signs for Black Diamond Therapeutics (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you would prefer to check out another company with better fundamentals, then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt or this list of stocks which are all forecast to grow.

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