Stock Analysis

We Think Atreca (NASDAQ:BCEL) Can Afford To Drive Business Growth

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NasdaqGS:BCEL
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There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, biotech and mining exploration companies often lose money for years before finding success with a new treatment or mineral discovery. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

So, the natural question for Atreca (NASDAQ:BCEL) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

Check out our latest analysis for Atreca

How Long Is Atreca's Cash Runway?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. When Atreca last reported its balance sheet in September 2020, it had zero debt and cash worth US$259m. In the last year, its cash burn was US$70m. Therefore, from September 2020 it had 3.7 years of cash runway. A runway of this length affords the company the time and space it needs to develop the business. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:BCEL Debt to Equity History December 7th 2020

How Is Atreca's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Because Atreca isn't currently generating revenue, we consider it an early-stage business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. Over the last year its cash burn actually increased by 26%, which suggests that management are increasing investment in future growth, but not too quickly. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but investors should be mindful of the fact that will shorten the cash runway. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Atreca To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Atreca shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Atreca has a market capitalisation of US$570m and burnt through US$70m last year, which is 12% of the company's market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.

So, Should We Worry About Atreca's Cash Burn?

As you can probably tell by now, we're not too worried about Atreca's cash burn. For example, we think its cash runway suggests that the company is on a good path. While its increasing cash burn wasn't great, the other factors mentioned in this article more than make up for weakness on that measure. After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 3 warning signs for Atreca (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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What are the risks and opportunities for Atreca?

Atreca, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops antibody-based immunotherapeutics to treat a range of solid tumor types.

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Risks

  • Has less than 1 year of cash runway

  • Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($0)

  • Does not have a meaningful market cap ($61M)

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

  • Volatile share price over the past 3 months

  • Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

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