Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

NasdaqGM:AXSM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.2b

Axsome Therapeutics Valuation

Is AXSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AXSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$730.79
Fair Value
82.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AXSM ($126.79) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($730.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AXSM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AXSM?

Key metric: As AXSM is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AXSM. This is calculated by dividing AXSM's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AXSM's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio16x
SalesUS$385.69m
Market CapUS$6.18b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AXSM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AXSM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.6x
ITCI Intra-Cellular Therapies
20.6x28.5%US$14.0b
TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals
10.5x27.5%US$1.9b
CORT Corcept Therapeutics
9.2x23.3%US$6.2b
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals
2.1x4.9%US$8.4b
AXSM Axsome Therapeutics
16x32.2%US$6.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AXSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16x) compared to the peer average (10.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AXSM's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

67 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VTRS Viatris
0.7x-0.9%US$10.92b
OGN Organon
0.6x0.4%US$3.97b
PRGO Perrigo
0.9x1.9%US$3.81b
BHC Bausch Health Companies
0.3x0.04%US$2.63b
AXSM 16.0xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies67PS03.67.210.814.418+
67 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AXSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AXSM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AXSM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio16x
Fair PS Ratio14.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AXSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (14.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AXSM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$126.79
US$173.00
+36.4%
14.9%US$212.00US$115.00n/a17
Mar ’26US$127.54
US$171.35
+34.4%
16.0%US$212.00US$115.00n/a17
Feb ’26US$106.46
US$135.13
+26.9%
17.8%US$190.00US$105.00n/a16
Jan ’26US$84.61
US$131.06
+54.9%
15.5%US$180.00US$105.00n/a17
Dec ’25US$98.22
US$129.41
+31.8%
16.2%US$180.00US$105.00n/a17
Nov ’25US$88.84
US$125.29
+41.0%
18.2%US$180.00US$100.00n/a17
Oct ’25US$90.51
US$125.24
+38.4%
18.2%US$180.00US$100.00n/a17
Sep ’25US$88.86
US$124.31
+39.9%
18.6%US$180.00US$100.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$86.01
US$124.06
+44.2%
20.0%US$190.00US$95.00n/a17
Jul ’25US$81.03
US$123.75
+52.7%
20.5%US$190.00US$97.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$73.43
US$123.56
+68.3%
20.5%US$190.00US$97.00n/a16
May ’25US$74.89
US$122.69
+63.8%
21.3%US$190.00US$93.00n/a16
Apr ’25US$76.99
US$121.19
+57.4%
22.5%US$190.00US$90.00n/a16
Mar ’25US$82.42
US$120.53
+46.2%
22.1%US$180.00US$90.00US$127.5415
Feb ’25US$93.45
US$120.13
+28.6%
23.1%US$180.00US$90.00US$106.4614
Jan ’25US$79.59
US$114.92
+44.4%
26.3%US$180.00US$80.00US$84.6113
Dec ’24US$68.00
US$114.08
+67.8%
27.4%US$180.00US$80.00US$98.2212
Nov ’24US$64.62
US$115.90
+79.3%
26.0%US$180.00US$84.00US$88.8412
Oct ’24US$69.89
US$116.59
+66.8%
25.7%US$180.00US$84.00US$90.5112
Sep ’24US$81.69
US$116.34
+42.4%
26.0%US$180.00US$81.00US$88.8612
Aug ’24US$77.33
US$112.96
+46.1%
32.4%US$190.00US$59.00US$86.0112
Jul ’24US$71.86
US$113.29
+57.7%
34.2%US$200.00US$57.00US$81.0312
Jun ’24US$72.76
US$111.50
+53.2%
33.8%US$200.00US$57.00US$73.4313
May ’24US$70.77
US$107.75
+52.2%
36.7%US$200.00US$52.00US$74.8913
Apr ’24US$61.68
US$106.61
+72.8%
33.5%US$200.00US$52.00US$76.9916
Mar ’24US$66.89
US$107.54
+60.8%
34.5%US$210.00US$52.00US$82.4216
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
US$173.00
Fair Value
26.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/23 01:03
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. is covered by 24 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joel BeattyBaird
Esther Lannie HongBerenberg
Jason Matthew GerberryBofA Global Research