Stock Analysis

We Think Anavex Life Sciences (NASDAQ:AVXL) Can Easily Afford To Drive Business Growth

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NasdaqGS:AVXL
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Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Anavex Life Sciences (NASDAQ:AVXL) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

View our latest analysis for Anavex Life Sciences

When Might Anavex Life Sciences Run Out Of Money?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. As at June 2022, Anavex Life Sciences had cash of US$153m and no debt. Importantly, its cash burn was US$28m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of about 5.5 years as of June 2022. Even though this is but one measure of the company's cash burn, the thought of such a long cash runway warms our bellies in a comforting way. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:AVXL Debt to Equity History October 1st 2022

How Is Anavex Life Sciences' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Anavex Life Sciences didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. With cash burn dropping by 3.8% it seems management feel the company is spending enough to advance its business plans at an appropriate pace. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Anavex Life Sciences To Raise More Cash For Growth?

While Anavex Life Sciences is showing a solid reduction in its cash burn, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

Since it has a market capitalisation of US$804m, Anavex Life Sciences' US$28m in cash burn equates to about 3.5% of its market value. That's a low proportion, so we figure the company would be able to raise more cash to fund growth, with a little dilution, or even to simply borrow some money.

How Risky Is Anavex Life Sciences' Cash Burn Situation?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way Anavex Life Sciences is burning through its cash. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. Its weak point is its cash burn reduction, but even that wasn't too bad! After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 3 warning signs for Anavex Life Sciences (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

What are the risks and opportunities for Anavex Life Sciences?

Anavex Life Sciences Corp., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of drug candidates for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases.

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Rewards

  • Earnings are forecast to grow 53.03% per year

Risks

  • Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($0)

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

  • Volatile share price over the past 3 months

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