A Look at Apellis Pharmaceuticals's Valuation Following Positive EMPAVELI Phase 3 C3G and IC-MPGN Data Release

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) just released new Phase 3 data showing that its drug EMPAVELI continues to help patients with C3G and IC-MPGN maintain lower proteinuria and stable kidney function over a year.

See our latest analysis for Apellis Pharmaceuticals.

Apellis has been making headlines lately with EMPAVELI’s positive trial results, but investors have also noticed renewed momentum in the shares. After a rocky start to the year, Apellis’s 1-month share price return hit 33%, with a notable 57% three-month surge. While the one-year total shareholder return stands at about 9%, shares still remain well below their three-year highs. This reflects ongoing volatility but also renewed optimism about growth potential and treatment success, which is driving sentiment higher.

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Given the recent run-up and positive trial data, the key question now is whether Apellis's stock is still trading below its true value or if the market has already factored in expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.5% Undervalued

With Apellis Pharmaceuticals closing at $29.78, the most widely followed narrative points to a significantly higher fair value. The stage is set for a potential gap between current sentiment and projected opportunity.

The recent FDA label expansion for EMPAVELI into rare kidney diseases (C3G and IC-MPGN), along with active plans to launch and pursue additional indications (FSGS and DGF), positions Apellis to access larger patient pools and accelerate long-term topline growth. This is driven by the increasing prevalence of rare and age-associated diseases and is likely to result in higher future revenues and market diversification.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what's fueling this bullish price target? The story hinges on bold growth assumptions, including earnings inflection, expanding margins, and a premium profit multiple. Curious which financial drivers really define the upside? Unlock the narrative to find out what sets these projections apart.

Result: Fair Value of $37.47 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain. These include potential setbacks if patient access does not improve or if competitors secure stronger adoption in key markets.

Find out about the key risks to this Apellis Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Apellis Pharmaceuticals Narrative

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A great starting point for your Apellis Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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