Why Alvotech (ALVO) Is Down 7.8% After Surprising Full-Year Revenue Guidance Cut

• Alvotech recently lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to US$570 million–US$600 million, revising its forecast by around 10% below the prior midpoint after earlier raising and reaffirming it earlier this year.
• This shift in expectations marks a meaningful change in management's outlook, coming soon after positive regulatory progress and improved profitability were reported.
• We'll examine how this unexpected revenue guidance cut may alter sentiment on Alvotech's investment case and industry outlook.

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Alvotech Investment Narrative Recap

Alvotech’s investment case relies on belief in its ability to consistently scale biosimilar launches across global markets, while overcoming price competition and regulatory hurdles. The recent revenue guidance cut, after months of bullish outlook, puts a spotlight on how closely short-term results depend on milestone payments from regulatory and product launches, a factor that remains the biggest catalyst, but also the primary risk if approval timelines slip. While this guidance reset tempers near-term optimism, it does not fundamentally shift the main story anchoring Alvotech’s appeal to shareholders.

Among recent events, Alvotech’s court victory in the UK stands out: the High Court’s decision to reject injunctions from Regeneron and Bayer paves the way for the seamless commercial launch of its Eylea biosimilar in Europe. This outcome directly supports the company’s biggest short-term catalyst, as undelayed launches are critical for achieving its revised revenue guidance and for maintaining momentum in a competitive biosimilars market.

By comparison, investors should be aware of the unpredictable timing and "lumpiness" of milestone revenue that can arise from changing regulatory timelines, because...

Read the full narrative on Alvotech (it's free!)

Alvotech's narrative projects $1.4 billion in revenue and $538.9 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 36.7% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of $475.5 million from $63.4 million currently.

Uncover how Alvotech's forecasts yield a $26.40 fair value, a 422% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven viewpoints from the Simply Wall St Community show fair value estimates for Alvotech spanning from US$14 to US$2,650.56. Against this wide range of opinions, the recent guidance change and ongoing regulatory dependencies suggest you should explore more than one perspective when assessing future prospects.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Alvotech - why the stock might be worth just $14.00!

Build Your Own Alvotech Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Alvotech research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Alvotech research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Alvotech's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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