Albireo Pharma (NasdaqCM:ALBO) - Share price, News & Analysis

ALBO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

ALBO Stock Overview

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 58.04% per year

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Sales ratio

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 167.2%

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Albireo Pharma Competitors

Protagonist Therapeutics

NasdaqGM:PTGX

US$432.4m

Karyopharm Therapeutics

NasdaqGS:KPTI

US$424.6m

IDEAYA Biosciences

NasdaqGS:IDYA

US$659.6m

Silence Therapeutics

OTCPK:SLNC.F

US$285.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Albireo Pharma
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$19.57
52 Week High	US$37.63
52 Week Low	US$16.02
Beta	0.93
1 Month Change	10.69%
3 Month Change	-1.46%
1 Year Change	-35.13%
3 Year Change	3.44%
5 Year Change	-9.23%
Change since IPO	34.04%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 22

Albireo gains on royalty agreement for pruritus therapy

Albireo Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALBO) added ~7% in the morning hours Thursday after the biotech focused on liver diseases announced an agreement with asset manager Sagard Healthcare Partners to sell royalties from the company's FDA-approved pruritus therapy Bylvay. Per the terms, Sagard will provide ALBO with a $115M upfront payment in return for a mid-single digit average royalty rate on Bylvay's global annual net revenues. The total royalties are capped at 1.6x of invested capital if repaid before Dec. 31, 2028, and 2.0x if repaid after that. The agreement ends with the achievement of the capped amount. The deal allows the company to extend its cash runway beyond at least 2024 when topline data is expected from the BOLD Phase 3 study for Bylvay in patients with biliary atresia. "These additional resources allow us to build Bylvay into a billion-dollar product and advance the development of our early asset pipeline," ALBO Chief Executive Ron Cooper remarked.

Sep 06

Albireo gets reimbursed access to liver disease drug Bylvay in Italy

Albireo Pharma (NASDAQ:ALBO) said the Italian Medicines Agency has enabled reimbursed access to Bylvay (odevixibat) to treat all types of patients with progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis (PFIC) in Italy. PFIC is a rare progressive, liver disease. Bylvay was granted Full Therapeutic Innovation status by Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco (AIFA), a designation for some products with unmet need and added clinical benefit, Albireo said in a Sept. 6 press release.

Aug 23

These Analysts Just Made A Significant Downgrade To Their Albireo Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALBO) EPS Forecasts

Market forces rained on the parade of Albireo Pharma, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ALBO ) shareholders today, when the analysts...

Shareholder Returns

	ALBO	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	12.7%	2.9%	-2.0%
1Y	-35.1%	-24.2%	-20.3%

Return vs Industry: ALBO underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -27.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ALBO underperformed the US Market which returned -22.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ALBO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ALBO volatility
ALBO Average Weekly Movement	13.2%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	11.1%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: ALBO is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 13% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ALBO's weekly volatility (13%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	130	Ron Cooper	https://www.albireopharma.com

Albireo Pharma, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of novel bile acid modulators to treat orphan pediatric liver diseases and other liver or gastrointestinal diseases and disorders. The company offers Bylvay for the treatment of progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis, as well as in Phase III clinical trial for treating biliary atresia, alagille syndrome, and rare and life-threatening disorder to children; and Elobixibat for the treatment of chronic constipation and other functional diseases. It also engages in the developing of A3907, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of adult liver diseases; and A2342, a preclinical candidate to treat adult viral and liver diseases.

Albireo Pharma Fundamentals Summary

How do Albireo Pharma's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ALBO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$383.82m
Earnings (TTM)	-US$36.26m
Revenue (TTM)	US$51.22m

7.5x

P/S Ratio

-10.6x

P/E Ratio

Is ALBO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ALBO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$51.22m
Cost of Revenue	US$2.37m
Gross Profit	US$48.86m
Other Expenses	US$85.12m
Earnings	-US$36.26m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-1.85
Gross Margin	95.38%
Net Profit Margin	-70.79%
Debt/Equity Ratio	8.9%

How did ALBO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ALBO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALBO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for ALBO. This is calculated by dividing ALBO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is ALBO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$383.82m

ALBO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-1.8x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ALBO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

ALBO PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for ALBO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.6x
PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics	9.5x	68.7%	US$432.4m
KPTI Karyopharm Therapeutics	1.7x	20.2%	US$424.6m
IDYA IDEAYA Biosciences	22.6x	37.0%	US$659.6m
SLNC.F Silence Therapeutics	16.6x	-17.1%	US$285.3m
ALBO Albireo Pharma	7.5x	58.0%	US$383.8m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ALBO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALBO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ALBO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (12.7x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALBO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALBO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	7.5x
Fair PS Ratio	22.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ALBO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (22.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALBO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALBO's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ALBO's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Albireo Pharma forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

70.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALBO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: ALBO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: ALBO is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ALBO's revenue (58% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALBO's revenue (58% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ALBO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Albireo Pharma performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-16.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ALBO is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: ALBO is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ALBO is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 16.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ALBO's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: ALBO is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (29.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ALBO has a negative Return on Equity (-31.9%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Albireo Pharma's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ALBO's short term assets ($195.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($43.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: ALBO's short term assets ($195.8M) exceed its long term liabilities ($71.7M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ALBO has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: ALBO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 2.6% to 8.9% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: ALBO has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: ALBO has sufficient cash runway for 1.4 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 38.9% each year.

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Dividend

What is Albireo Pharma current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Albireo Pharma Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Albireo Pharma dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Albireo Pharma)	n/a
Market Bottom 25% (US)	1.6%
Market Top 25% (US)	4.6%
Industry Average (Biotechs)	2.7%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Albireo Pharma)	n/a

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALBO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ALBO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALBO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ALBO's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ALBO has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ron Cooper (59 yo)

7yrs

Tenure

US$6,041,334

Compensation

Mr. Ronald H. W. Cooper, also known as Ron, serves as Independent Director at Generation Bio Co. since March 2021. He has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Albireo Pharma Inc. since July 20...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Ron Cooper's Compensation vs Albireo Pharma Earnings

How has Ron Cooper's remuneration changed compared to Albireo Pharma's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	-US$36m
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	-US$33m
Dec 31 2021	US$6m	US$590k	-US$34m
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	-US$48m
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	-US$136m
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	-US$120m
Dec 31 2020	US$3m	US$570k	-US$108m
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	-US$90m
Jun 30 2020	n/a	n/a	-US$82m
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	-US$78m
Dec 31 2019	US$3m	US$551k	-US$63m
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	-US$71m
Jun 30 2019	n/a	n/a	-US$63m
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	-US$61m
Dec 31 2018	US$4m	US$530k	-US$46m
Sep 30 2018	n/a	n/a	-US$35m
Jun 30 2018	n/a	n/a	-US$28m
Mar 31 2018	n/a	n/a	-US$19m
Dec 31 2017	US$2m	US$460k	-US$24m
Sep 30 2017	n/a	n/a	-US$31m
Jun 30 2017	n/a	n/a	-US$28m
Mar 31 2017	n/a	n/a	-US$20m
Dec 31 2016	US$4m	US$400k	-US$16m
Sep 30 2016	n/a	n/a	-US$5m
Jun 30 2016	n/a	n/a	-US$4m
Mar 31 2016	n/a	n/a	-US$8m
Dec 31 2015	US$352k	US$221k	-US$7m

Compensation vs Market: Ron's total compensation ($USD6.04M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.92M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ron's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ALBO's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: ALBO's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of ALBO?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Individual Insiders	273,728	1.4%
General Public	412,177	2.1%
VC/PE Firms	2,360,139	12.0%
Institutions	16,566,465	84.5%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 86.85% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
12.03%	Perceptive Advisors LLC	2,360,139	$46.2m	0%	1.4%
11.5%	Federated Hermes, Inc.	2,255,124	$44.1m	-4.39%	0.13%
7.26%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	1,424,343	$27.9m	56.74%	no data
6.89%	Chicago Capital, LLC	1,351,234	$26.4m	33.55%	1.44%
6.18%	BlackRock, Inc.	1,212,620	$23.7m	5.35%	no data
5.07%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	993,970	$19.5m	1.67%	no data
4.45%	Franklin Resources, Inc.	872,879	$17.1m	82.51%	0.01%
4.07%	Medical Strategy GmbH, Asset Management Arm	797,699	$15.6m	2.51%	1.01%
3.57%	Tang Capital Management, LLC	700,000	$13.7m	49.67%	1.97%
3.09%	ArrowMark Colorado Holdings, LLC	606,963	$11.9m	-5.29%	0.14%
2.64%	Decheng Capital LLC	518,342	$10.1m	0%	3.82%
2.39%	Prosight Management, LP	467,795	$9.2m	-2.54%	6.48%
2.38%	Rice Hall James & Associates, LLC	465,804	$9.1m	-1.93%	0.43%
2.2%	Nicholas Investment Partners, L.P.	430,878	$8.4m	-1.9%	0.81%
1.98%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	388,857	$7.6m	7.7%	no data
1.68%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	328,701	$6.4m	-2.61%	no data
1.68%	GW&K Investment Management, LLC	328,678	$6.4m	3.95%	0.07%
1.53%	Privium Fund Management BV	300,252	$5.9m	-14.65%	1.39%
1.2%	MAI Capital Management, LLC	236,147	$4.6m	18.88%	0.09%
1.18%	J. Goldman & Co., L.P.	231,278	$4.5m	0%	0.34%
1.17%	Platinum Investment Management Limited	228,821	$4.5m	-14.22%	0.12%
0.93%	Northern Trust Global Investments	181,432	$3.6m	-1.7%	no data
0.62%	Citadel Advisors LLC	121,521	$2.4m	23.99%	no data
0.6%	Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments	116,968	$2.3m	117.06%	no data
0.58%	Birchview Capital, LP	113,000	$2.2m	0%	1.64%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
BDQM	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Stock	DE	EUR	Nov 2016
ALBO	NasdaqCM (Nasdaq Capital Market)	Yes	Common Stock	US	USD	Nov 2016
ALBO *	BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)	Yes	Common Stock	MX	MXN	Nov 2016

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/28 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31