Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Valuation in Focus After VALOR Trial Decision Alters Vafseo Strategy

Akebia Therapeutics said it will not move ahead with the VALOR clinical trial for vadadustat after talks with the FDA highlighted the need for a much larger and more expensive study than planned.

See our latest analysis for Akebia Therapeutics.

After Akebia announced it would not pursue a broader label for Vafseo, the share price retreated sharply and has lost over 43% in the past three months. Despite this, the company’s one-year total shareholder return remains positive at 24%, highlighting how volatile momentum has defined both the short-term and long-term story for investors.

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Given the sharp decline in Akebia’s share price and a still-positive one-year return, is the current valuation underappreciated by the market, or has Wall Street already taken the company’s future prospects into account?

Most Popular Narrative: 69% Undervalued

Compared to Akebia Therapeutics’ last close at $2.10, the narrative’s calculated fair value significantly outpaces the current price, setting the stage for a potentially compelling upside. The following perspective highlights the key driver behind this bullish stance.

Rapid expansion of Vafseo prescribing access from 40,000 dialysis patients in early 2025 to a projected 275,000+ by late Q4 through contracts with major dialysis networks (DCI, IRC, DaVita) positions Akebia to significantly increase near-term and long-term revenue and market share as the number of treated CKD anemia patients grows in line with an aging population and broader healthcare access.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what revenue ramp and margin leap underpin this bold valuation? The narrative hinges on forward-looking financial assumptions that may surprise you. Hungry to see which optimistic forecasts fuel the gap between today’s stock price and the narrative’s calculated target? Discover the numbers that could make Akebia one of the sector’s biggest comeback stories, if they play out.

Result: Fair Value of $6.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent generic competition for Auryxia and Akebia’s dependence on Vafseo adoption could quickly undermine the optimistic outlook if challenges mount.

Find out about the key risks to this Akebia Therapeutics narrative.

Build Your Own Akebia Therapeutics Narrative

If you think there’s more beneath the surface or want to test your own thesis, you can craft a personalized analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Akebia Therapeutics research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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