ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Results and Upgraded 2025 Revenue Guidance

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) just posted higher revenue and net income for the third quarter compared to last year. The company also increased its 2025 revenue guidance, signaling confidence in sustained business momentum.

See our latest analysis for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.

Following its upbeat earnings and increased revenue outlook, ACADIA’s stock has picked up steam lately, with a 16.1% share price return over the past month and a robust 26.7% year-to-date gain. Longer term, shareholders have enjoyed a 38.9% total return over the past year. This suggests that momentum may be building as the company executes on its growth plans and considers strategic acquisitions.

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But does this recent run-up mean ACADIA is now trading at a premium, or have investors overlooked some upside with growth momentum and a strategic pipeline in play? Is there still a buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in future gains?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.4% Undervalued

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals’ most-followed narrative puts its fair value nearly 20% above the latest closing price, hinting at major upside if the projections hold. Behind this enthusiasm are big bets on future demand, pipeline launches, and broadening markets.

Expanding product demand, strong pipeline progress, and strategic outreach are broadening the patient base and diversifying revenue streams. This approach reduces reliance on single products. Favorable regulatory trends and industry consolidation are enabling faster market access and unlocking new partnership and growth opportunities.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how ambitious expansion plans could lead to this head-turning valuation? Find out which future launches, margin moves, and pipeline growth are fueling the bullish outlook. The key detail that pushes this price target higher might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $29.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing price control debates and ACADIA’s heavy reliance on NUPLAZID could quickly shift the outlook if growth or exclusivity comes under threat.

Find out about the key risks to this ACADIA Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If the consensus story does not fit your view, you can dive into the details and shape your own narrative in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ACADIA Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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