Yalla Group Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Yalla Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 4.3% and 4.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to decline by 4.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.9% in 3 years.
Key information
4.3%
Earnings growth rate
-4.76%
EPS growth rate
| Interactive Media and Services earnings growth | 12.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.3% |
| Future return on equity | 16.87% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 23 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 04
YALA: Share Repurchases Will Support Higher Profitability And Future Upside
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Yalla Group to $8.60 from $9.27, citing updated assumptions around a lower revenue growth rate, a higher discount rate, a higher projected profit margin of 44.54%, and a lower future P/E multiple of 8.67. What's in the News Yalla Group has been running a share repurchase program announced on May 21, 2021, under which it has repurchased 15,682,173 shares, representing 10.27% of its share base, for a total of US$106.02 million, including 660,552 shares repurchased between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 for US$4.7 million (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 20
YALA: Esports Partnerships And Buybacks Will Support Measured Long Term Returns
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Yalla Group by $0.90 as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate, more moderate revenue growth, a small uplift in profit margin, and a lower future P/E assumption. What's in the News Yalla Group announced a share repurchase program authorizing up to US$150 million of American depositary shares and Class A ordinary shares, to be funded from existing cash over a 24 month period (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 05
YALA: Expanded Buybacks And Saudi Esports Partnership Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have kept their $10.30 price target for Yalla Group unchanged, citing only minor adjustments to the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions that do not materially change their overall valuation perspective. What's in the News Yalla Group updated investors that, from October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, it repurchased 660,552 shares, representing 0.43% of shares, for US$4.7 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 22
YALA: Share Repurchases And Saudi Esports Expansion Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have kept their $10.30 price target for Yalla Group unchanged, citing relatively stable assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as reasons to maintain their view rather than adjust it. What's in the News Yalla Group completed a share repurchase tranche between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, buying back 660,552 shares for US$4.7 million.Seeking Alpha • Mar 17
Yalla: The Social Status Economy Trading At A Deep Discount
Summary Yalla (YALA) is rated a Buy, trading at ~7x earnings with strong margins and disciplined cost control. Despite flat revenue and a 15% drop in paying users, YALA grew net income by 10.4% in 2025. YALA's net cash position, ongoing buybacks, and new game launches offer valuation support and potential upside. Risks include geographic concentration, slowing revenue, and regulatory headwinds, but current valuation prices in structural decline. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 08
YALA: Saudi Esports Partnerships Will Support Future Upside Case
Analysts have nudged their price target for Yalla Group higher to $10.30 per share, citing updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and forward P/E that slightly adjust their valuation framework. What's in the News Yalla Group signed two Memoranda of Understanding with the Saudi Esports Federation to support Saudi Arabia's National Gaming and Esports Strategy and Vision 2030 goals, focusing on building out the national esports ecosystem.Narrative Update • Feb 22
YALA: Saudi Esports Partnerships Will Support Stronger Long Term Returns
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Yalla Group, with updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E. This has led to a refreshed view of fair value in the $8.50 range.Narrative Update • Feb 07
YALA: Esports Partnerships And Margin Outlook Will Support Bullish Case
Analysts have kept Yalla Group's fair value estimate at US$10.30 per share. They explained the unchanged target by noting that slightly revised revenue growth and P/E assumptions are offset by expectations for stronger profit margins.Narrative Update • Jan 24
YALA: Share Repurchases And Stable Outlook Will Support Stronger Future Returns
Analysts have kept their price target for Yalla Group broadly steady, reflecting only a marginal tweak to inputs such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions, rather than a material shift in their view on the stock’s valuation in US$ terms. What's in the News Yalla Group repurchased 1,486,184 shares between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, representing 0.95% of its shares, for a total of US$10.9 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 09
YALA: Ongoing Share Repurchases Will Support Stronger Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts kept their fair value estimate for Yalla Group steady at US$8.50, with only small tweaks to the discount rate, revenue growth outlook and assumed future P/E. Together, these factors support maintaining the existing price target level rather than making a sizable change.Narrative Update • Dec 26
YALA: Ongoing Share Repurchases Will Drive Stronger Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Yalla Group to 8.56 dollars from 8.55 dollars, citing slightly improved expectations for long term revenue growth, profitability, and valuation multiples. What's in the News From July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, Yalla Group repurchased 1,486,184 shares, or about 0.95 percent of its outstanding shares, for 10.9 million dollars, as part of its ongoing share buyback program (company filing).Narrative Update • Dec 12
YALA: Share Repurchases And Rising Margins Will Drive Stronger Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Yalla Group by approximately 13 percent to the mid single digit dollar range, citing improved profit margin expectations and a modestly higher justified earnings multiple despite slightly softer projected revenue growth. What's in the News Completed share repurchase program announced in May 2021, with a total of 15,021,621 shares bought back for approximately $101.3 million, representing about 9.8% of shares outstanding (company disclosure) Most recent tranche of the buyback, from July 1 to September 30, 2025, involved the repurchase of 1,486,184 shares for $10.9 million, equal to roughly 0.95% of shares (company disclosure) Issued fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance in the range of $78 million to $85 million, reflecting management's current view of market conditions and demand (company guidance) Valuation Changes Fair Value: risen modestly from 7.5 to 8.5, reflecting a slightly higher intrinsic valuation estimate.Narrative Update • Aug 15
AI Integration And MENA Expansion May Improve Future Potential Amid Competition Risks
Upward revisions to Yalla Group’s consensus revenue growth forecasts and a slight decrease in its future P/E ratio have contributed to the increase in the analyst price target from $8.10 to $8.53. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 5,409,723 shares for $35.6 million, totaling 13,535,437 shares (8.89%) for $90.42 million under existing buyback.Analysis Article • Jul 24
Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Surges 27% Yet Its Low P/E Is No Reason For Excitement
Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period...Analysis Article • Jun 30
Should You Be Adding Yalla Group (NYSE:YALA) To Your Watchlist Today?
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Analysis Article • May 09
Yalla Group Limited's (NYSE:YALA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 43%
Despite an already strong run, Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 43% in...Seeking Alpha • Mar 29
Yalla: Undervalued Cash Machine Set For Double-Digit Growth
Summary Yalla's strong cash generation and net cash position of $653M reinforce its potential for dividends and buybacks, making it an attractive investment. The company achieved record revenues of $90M in 4Q24, driven by user growth and increased spending per user, with improved gross margins. Yalla's new game launches and partnerships in 2025 are expected to drive double-digit revenue growth, expanding its user base and increasing in-game spending. Shareholder remuneration is set to increase with an extended buyback program and potential dividends, supporting a positive outlook and a target price of $11.71. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 25
Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 25%
The Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of...Seeking Alpha • Jan 29
Yalla Group: Undervalued Tech Giant With A Huge Upside Potential
Summary Yalla Group Limited, based in Dubai, specializes in social and gaming apps for the MENA region, with a strong focus on cultural localization and voice communication. The company employs a freemium model, generating revenue through virtual tokens, in-app purchases, and personalized services, while maintaining strong margins and operational efficiency. Yalla stock is significantly undervalued, with a P/E ratio of 5.3x and an adjusted P/E of 1x, trading below book value with 75% of assets in cash. Recommendation: Buy. Yalla's solid liquidity, consistent margins, and shareholder-friendly programs like buybacks and potential dividends offer sustained upside potential and reduced investment risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 07
Yalla Group: Poised For A Breakthrough With Strong Fundamentals
Summary Yalla Group, a Dubai-based developer of social and gaming apps for the MENA region, is undervalued with a P/E ratio of ~5.7x and significant cash reserves. The stock has underperformed major indices by a huge margin, despite stable growth in revenues and cash flows. Recent financial performance shows growth in revenues, net income, and user base, indicating stable growth and potential mispricing opportunity. Risks include high revenue concentration from two main apps, but these concerns appear overblown given the company's cash flow and valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 18
Expanding In MENA With Innovative Gaming Strategies Faces Profit Margin Challenges
Yalla Group's strategic enhancements in user acquisition and operational efficiency are poised to elevate user base and margins through AI and better technology use.Seeking Alpha • Aug 07
Yalla Group: The Proverbial Hit Or Miss
Summary Yalla, a Dubai-based social media and gaming company, has posted impressive growth but a drastic 90% drop in stock price. Allegations of fraud have emerged since Yalla's IPO, casting doubt on the company's integrity and potential investment opportunity. Investors face a dilemma: believe in Yalla's impressive financials or fear the risk of permanent capital destruction due to possible fraud. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 18
Yalla Group's Growth Slows Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds (Downgrade)
Summary Yalla Group Limited provides a social media networking platform for Middle Eastern users. Revenue growth has slowed and is expected to slow further from forward guidance and macroeconomic headwinds. The social media market in the MENA region is expected to reach $59 billion by 2029, but piracy and lax copyright enforcement may hinder growth. My outlook for Yalla Group Limited is downgraded from Buy to Neutral (Hold). Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
Yalla Seeks Major Game Publishers For 'Act Two' Of Its Hardcore Gaming Foray
Summary Yalla’s revenue could return to double-digit growth in the first quarter, as it improves its user monetization and rolls out new functions for its core social media services. The company said its first two hardcore games were valuable test cases and is shifting its focus to working with more established game publishers. Yalla is hoping not only to introduce its own new products into its core base in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but also position itself as a partner for other global companies looking to enter the market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 06
Yalla Group: High Uncertainty Despite Strong Balance Sheet
Summary Yalla Group aspired to be the "Clubhouse of MENA". It operates the voice-based group chat platform Yalla and the gaming app Yalla Ludo. YALA's share price has been trading sideways since its peak in February 2021. Balance sheet and profitability are strong, but overall growth prospects are unclear. Heightened competition, past red flags, and elevated risk profile due to the gaming business making YALA too risky despite my 15% upside projection, in my view. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 15
Should You Be Adding Yalla Group (NYSE:YALA) To Your Watchlist Today?
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Seeking Alpha • Nov 27
Yalla Profit Zooms On Gaming Jump, Enhanced Efficiency
Summary Yalla’s revenue rose 6.4% in the third quarter, fueled by a 31% jump in revenue from its gaming operation. The company’s paying users posted a rare decline in the quarter as Yalla shifted its focus to higher-spending users. Yalla is a relatively conservative company with little debt and large cash reserves that totaled $545 million at the end of September. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 01
Yalla Group: Bullish Trend Appears To Be On
Summary Yalla Group's share prices have experienced a significant decline but have rebounded over the past year. The company's strong growth can be attributed to factors such as increased user engagement, product diversification, and strategic partnerships. Yalla has a strong moat based on brand loyalty, network effects, and economies of scale, positioning it for long-term success in the online social entertainment and gaming industry. Given the strong growth levers, moat, and technical analysis, I recommend buying YALA stock. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 12
Should You Investigate Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) At US$5.39?
Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a significant share price rise of over...Analysis Article • Aug 19
Do Yalla Group's (NYSE:YALA) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Seeking Alpha • Aug 16
Yalla Group Grows Revenue And Profits As It Launches New Games
Summary Yalla Group Limited reported Q2 2023 financial results, missing consensus revenue estimates. The company operates a voice-centric social networking and entertainment service in the Middle East and North Africa regions. Based on my discounted cash flow calculation, the stock may be undervalued, and I reiterate a Buy outlook at around $5.20. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jul 12
Is Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Trading At A 27% Discount?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Yalla Group is US$6.75 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...Analysis Article • May 12
Is Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Potentially Undervalued?
Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during...Analysis Article • Mar 16
Earnings Update: Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.3...Analysis Article • Feb 22
An Intrinsic Calculation For Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for Yalla Group is US$8.68 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Yalla...Seeking Alpha • Feb 08
Yalla Group Expands Offerings For MENA Social Network
Summary Yalla Group reported its Q3 2022 financial results on November 14, 2022. The firm operates a voice-based social network in the MENA region. YALA has produced moderate revenue growth and profits and continues to expand its product offerings. My outlook on YALA is a Buy at around $5.00 per share. A Quick Take On Yalla Group Yalla Group (YALA) went public in September 2020, raising approximately $140 million in gross proceeds in an IPO priced at $7.50 per ADS. The firm operates a voice-centric social networking and entertainment service that covers the Middle East and Northern Africa regions. YALA is producing moderate growth and profits while expanding its product offerings further into gaming. My outlook is a Buy at around $5.00 per share. Yalla Group Overview Dubai, United Arab Emirates-based Yalla was founded to develop an online community service focused on the Middle East and North Africa [MENA] region that is built on voice communication rather than just written texting. Management is headed by founder, Chairman and CEO Mr. Tao Yang, who was previously manager of ZICT Technology Co and vice president of Beijing Feinno Communication Technology. The company’s primary offerings include: Voice Chat Social Network Entertainment Online Games Gift Exchange The firm provides its app to users through major mobile platform operators such as Apple and Google. Management believes there is a 'significant imbalance between the supply of, and demand for, online social networking and entertainment options in MENA.' Yalla’s Market & Competition According to a 2019 market research report by Wamda, Crowd Analyzer, along with Hootsuite and APCO Worldwide, issued a report that analyzed over 172 million social media interactions and concluded that MENA social media users are 'becoming more active and engaged online where conversations are taking place about brands, business and services alongside fashion, politics and religion.' User bases have shown growth on nearly every social media platform, and that growth has been driven primarily by Generation X persons. Notably, Saudi Arabia registered a social media penetration rate of 75%; in Egypt, users were interested in a 'much broader variety of topics, including politics, religion, sports and social development.' Major competitive or other industry participants include: Meta (META) Tik Tok Twitter Snapchat (SNAP) Other social media-enabled services Yalla’s Recent Financial Performance Total revenue by quarter has grown per the chart below: Total Revenue (Seeking Alpha) Gross profit margin by quarter has trended lower in recent quarters: Gross Profit Margin (Seeking Alpha) Selling, G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue by quarter have also trended lower more recently: Selling, G&A % Of Revenue (Seeking Alpha) Operating income by quarter has risen in recent reporting periods: Operating Income (Seeking Alpha) Earnings per share (Diluted) have trended slightly higher recently: Earnings Per Share (Seeking Alpha) (All data in the above charts is GAAP) In the past 12 months, YALA’s stock price has fallen 23.4% vs. that of QQQM’s Nasdaq 100 index’s fall of 14.8%, as the chart below indicates: 52-Week Stock Price Comparison (Seeking Alpha) Valuation And Other Metrics For Yalla Group Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company: Measure [TTM] Amount Enterprise Value / Sales 1.1 Enterprise Value / EBITDA 4.0 Price / Sales 2.6 Revenue Growth Rate 16.6% Net Income Margin 27.7% GAAP EBITDA % 28.1% Market Capitalization $744,336,830 Enterprise Value $329,164,544 Operating Cash Flow $144,240,944 Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted) $0.47 (Source - Seeking Alpha) Below is an estimated DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis of the firm’s projected growth and earnings: Yalla Group Discounted Cash Flow Calculation (GuruFocus) Assuming generous DCF parameters, the firm’s shares would be valued at approximately $5.87 versus the current price of $5.01, indicating they are potentially currently undervalued, with the given earnings, growth, and discount rate assumptions of the DCF. The Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory. Yalla’s most recent GAAP Rule of 40 calculation was 44.7% as of Q3 2022, so the firm has performed well in this regard, per the table below: Rule of 40 - GAAP Calculation Recent Rev. Growth % 16.6% GAAP EBITDA % 28.1% Total 44.7% (Source - Seeking Alpha) Commentary On Yalla Group In its last earnings call (Source - Seeking Alpha), covering Q3 2022’s results, management highlighted its revenue growth exceeding the high end of its previous guidance and the third quarter in a row of record revenue for the firm. The company also featured its Yalla Game offering, ‘to explore the mid-core hard-core game distribution business as a complement to our casual game portfolio.’Analysis Article • Dec 16
Yalla Group Limited (NYSE:YALA) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.4x Yalla Group Limited ( NYSE:YALA ) may be sending very bullish signals...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 375 | 167 | N/A | 181 | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 379 | 162 | 170 | 174 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 345 | 141 | 32 | 167 | 3 |
| 12/31/2025 | 342 | 150 | 135 | 138 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 349 | 148 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 348 | 146 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 345 | 141 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 340 | 136 | 172 | 173 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 330 | 134 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 326 | 131 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 324 | 128 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 319 | 117 | 138 | 139 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 313 | 101 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 308 | 90 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 305 | 81 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 304 | 80 | 103 | 120 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 296 | 82 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 287 | 83 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 278 | 81 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 273 | 83 | 143 | 144 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 254 | 73 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 216 | 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 182 | 9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 135 | -2 | 64 | 65 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 106 | -14 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 90 | 24 | 37 | 37 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 71 | 22 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 63 | 16 | 31 | 31 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 42 | -9 | N/A | 23 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: YALA's forecast earnings growth (4.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: YALA's earnings (4.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: YALA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: YALA's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: YALA's revenue (4.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: YALA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.9%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 03:01 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Yalla Group Limited is covered by 5 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Xueqing Zhang | China International Capital Corporation Limited |
| Junyun Chen | Citic Securities Co., Ltd. |
| Xiaoyue Hu | Haitong International Research Limited |