Buy Or Sell Opportunity • 7h
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 5.5% to US$199. The fair value is estimated to be US$164, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 40% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 29% per annum over the same time period. Live News • Jun 11
TKO Group Holdings Partners With SuperFile for Global UFC and WWE Sponsorships TKO Group Holdings and SuperFile announced a global partnership that makes SuperFile the inaugural Official Secure File Sharing Partner for both UFC and WWE.
SuperFile will be an Official Partner for the UFC FREEDOM 250 event at the White House on June 14, 2026.
The agreement includes branding integrations and presenting partner roles at key events such as UFC 329 and WrestleMania 43.
The deal highlights TKO’s focus on monetizing its UFC and WWE properties through sponsorships that span multiple major events and brands.
Investors may want to monitor how effectively TKO converts these types of partnerships into recurring sponsorship revenue and broader commercial relationships over time. Declared Dividend • Jun 07
First quarter dividend of US$0.79 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.79. Ex-date: 15th June 2026 Payment date: 30th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.5%, which is higher than the industry average of 0.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not adequately covered by earnings (95% earnings payout ratio). However, it is well covered by cash flows (35% cash payout ratio). The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 5.7% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 70% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Jun 04
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend for the Second Quarter 2026, Payable on June 30, 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend pursuant to which TKO’s Class A common stockholders will receive their pro rata share of an aggregate distribution of approximately $150 million from TKO Operating Company, LLC to its equityholders. The per share dividend to the holders of TKO’s Class A common stockholders will be $0.79 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 30, 2026 to Class A common stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 15, 2026. Live News • Jun 02
Trump Invests in TKO as White House Prepares for UFC Freedom 250 on South Lawn Donald Trump disclosed a purchase of between US$15,001 and US$50,000 of TKO Group Holdings stock in March 2025.
The White House plans to host the “UFC Freedom 250” event on Trump’s 80th birthday as part of the United States semiquincentennial celebrations.
UFC president Dana White said Trump initiated the idea for the event, which will be held on the White House South Lawn.
The alignment of a White House South Lawn event with UFC branding places TKO and its flagship promotion in a highly visible political and cultural spotlight that could affect public perception of the company, positively or negatively, depending on audience views.
Investors may want to watch for any follow-on sponsorships, media attention or regulatory scrutiny tied to the event and to Trump’s disclosed stake, as these factors could influence sentiment toward the stock. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 14
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.9% to US$193. The fair value is estimated to be US$160, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 40% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 8.6% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 29% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • May 13
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from US$5.20 to US$4.51 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$5.76b. Net income forecast to grow 160% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$234. Share price fell 3.6% to US$184 over the past week. New Risk • May 07
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 45% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (45% net debt to equity). Dividend is not well covered by earnings (95% payout ratio). Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: US$1.16 (up from US$0.72 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$1.60b (up 26% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$89.4m (up 53% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 5.6% (up from 4.6% in 1Q 2025). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 102% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Apr 25
TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 10, 2026. Announcement • Apr 08
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 06, 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results After-Market on May 06, 2026 Major Estimate Revision • Mar 08
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from US$6.72 to US$5.83 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$5.79b. Net income forecast to grow 241% next year vs 26% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$235. Share price fell 9.5% to US$203 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Mar 06
Fourth quarter dividend of US$0.78 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.78. Ex-date: 16th March 2026 Payment date: 31st March 2026 Dividend yield will be 1.3%, which is higher than the industry average of 0.9%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not adequately covered by earnings (95% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (52% cash payout ratio). The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 5.7% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 70% over the next 3 years, which is sufficient to bring the dividend into a sustainable range. Announcement • Mar 05
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Declares Dividend for the First Quarter 2026, Payable March 31, 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend pursuant to which TKO’s Class A common stockholders will receive their pro rata share of an aggregate distribution of approximately $150 million from TKO Operating Company, LLC to its equityholders. The per share dividend to the holders of TKO’s Class A common stockholders will be $0.78 per share. The dividend will be paid on March 31, 2026 to Class A common stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 16, 2026. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 04
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 23%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from US$6.01b to US$5.80b. EPS estimate rose from US$5.41 to US$6.67. Net income forecast to grow 242% next year vs 30% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$234. Share price rose 5.0% to US$220 over the past week. New Risk • Feb 27
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by earnings. Payout ratio: 95% Dividend yield: 1.4% This is considered a minor risk. Companies that pay out too much of their earnings are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If earnings growth slows or earnings fall, then there may not be enough earnings to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to dig into capital reserves or take on debt to maintain the dividend. However, this risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by cash flows. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Feb 26
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: US$2.42 (up from US$0.12 in FY 2024). Revenue: US$4.74b (up 69% from FY 2024). Net income: US$195.4m (up US$186.0m from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.1% (up from 0.3% in FY 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Feb 26
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the full year 2026. For the year 2026, the company targeting revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 29
Now 24% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 6.7% to US$201. The fair value is estimated to be US$162, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 35% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 20% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 41% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Jan 28
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 25, 2026 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results After-Market on Feb 25, 2026 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jan 21
COO, President & Director notifies of intention to sell stock Mark Shapiro intends to sell 28k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 20th of January. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$203, it would amount to US$5.7m. Since June 2025, Mark's direct individual holding has increased from 73.68k shares to 104.84k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$25m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jan 04
Senior Counsel & Administrative Officer notifies of intention to sell stock Seth Krauss intends to sell 32k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 2nd of January. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$209, it would amount to US$6.6m. Since March 2025, Seth has owned 7.98k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$8.3m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 08
Upcoming dividend of US$0.78 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 December 2025. Payment date: 30 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 54% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.5%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.4%). In line with average of industry peers (1.5%). Announcement • Dec 04
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Declares Fourth Quarter 2025 Cash Dividend, Payable on December 30, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that its board of directors has declared a Fourth Quarter cash dividend pursuant to which TKO’s Class A common stockholders will receive their pro rata share of an aggregate distribution of approximately $150 million from TKO Operating Company, LLC to its equity holders. The per share dividend to the holders of TKO’s Class A common stockholders will be $0.78 per share. The dividend will be paid on December 30, 2025 to Class A common stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 15, 2025. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 12
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from US$2.73 to US$3.03. Revenue forecast steady at US$4.72b. Net income forecast to grow 146% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$223. Share price fell 4.1% to US$180 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.50 (up from US$0.29 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.12b (up 64% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$41.0m (up 77% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 3.7% (up from 3.4% in 3Q 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 8.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Nov 06
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Raises Earnings Guidance for the Full Year Ended December 31, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. raised earnings guidance for the full year ended December 31, 2025. For the year, the company expected revenue of $4.690 billion to $4.720 billion as compared to previous guidance of revenue $4.630 billion to $4.690 billion provided in August and revenue and guidance of $4.490 billion to $4.560 billion provided in May. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 13
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to US$189. The fair value is estimated to be US$156, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 34% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Oct 08
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 05, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results After-Market on Nov 05, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Sep 15
Executive Chair & CEO exercised options and sold US$11m worth of stock On the 12th of September, Ariel Emanuel exercised options to acquire 53k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of US$202 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. For the year to December 2023, Ariel's total compensation was 17% salary and 83% other compensation. This indicates that these sales could comprise a meaningful part of their income for the year. Since December 2024, Ariel's direct individual holding has increased from 60.37k shares to 66.18k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$22m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 08
Upcoming dividend of US$0.76 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 15 September 2025. Payment date: 30 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 29% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.4%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.1%). Announcement • Sep 03
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Announces 100% Increase to Quarterly Cash Dividend Program and Declares Dividend of Third Quarter 2025 , Payable on September 30, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that its board of directors has authorized a significant increase to its quarterly cash dividend program. TKO’s Class A common stockholders will now receive their pro rata share of an aggregate distribution of approximately $150 million from TKO Operating Company, LLC to its equityholders, representing a 100% increase over the prior program. The per share dividend to the holders of TKO’s Class A common stockholders as declared by the board under the upsized dividend program will be $0.76 per share. The dividend will be paid on September 30, 2025, to Class A common stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 15, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 13
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to US$191, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 50x. Average forward P/E is 24x in the Entertainment industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 62% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at US$151 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 11
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.4% to US$180. The fair value is estimated to be US$148, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 34% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$1.20 (up from US$0.73 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.31b (up 54% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$98.4m (up 66% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 6.9% in 2Q 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 6.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 7.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Aug 07
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. revised earnings guidance for the full year 2025. In May 2025, the Company issued revenue guidance of $4.490 billion - $4.560 billion. These amounts included the expected activity for the Acquired Businesses (consisting of IMG, On Location, PBR, and the associated transactional impacts). Based on outperformance through the first six months of the year and anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, the Company is raising its guidance and now expects full year 2025 revenue of $4.630 billion - $4.690 billion. New Risk • Jul 21
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 16% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Jul 13
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 16% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • Jul 09
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 06, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Aug 06, 2025 New Risk • Jun 29
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 16% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Upcoming Dividend • Jun 06
Upcoming dividend of US$0.38 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 June 2025. Payment date: 30 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 18% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 0.9%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (1.2%). New Risk • Jun 01
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 16% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Announcement • May 31
Berger Montague Flies antitrust class action lawsuit against the Zuffa LLC, TKO Group Holdings, Inc., and Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc Berger Montague, filed an antitrust class action lawsuit against the Zuffa LLC, TKO Group Holdings, Inc., and Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc., the owners and operators of the Ultimate Fighting Championship ("UFC"), on behalf of professional mixed martial arts ("MMA") fighters who competed for MMA promotions other than the UFC. The named plaintiff in the suit is Phil Davis, a professional MMA fighter currently under contract with a would-be rival MMA promotion. "The suit alleges that the UFC impairs the ability of would-be UFC competitors to attract a critical mass of top-level MMA fighters necessary to compete with the UFC at the top tier of the sport," said Firm Chairman and a lead lawyer for the fighters, Eric Cramer. "We intend to prove that the UFC engaged in a predatory scheme to undermine would be competitors to the UFC, which the suit claims had the effect of maintaining and enhancing the UFC's dominance, and thereby impairing the careers and pay not just of the UFC's own fighters, but also of professional MMA fighters like Mr. Davis competing for MMA promotions across the MMA industry."The lawsuit seeks no money damages. Instead, it seeks an injunction to prevent the UFC from continuing its allegedly illegal scheme. By shutting down the UFC's allegedly anticompetitive behavior, the suit intends to create the conditions for free and fair competition among professional MMA promotions, which in turn, would bolster the careers and pay of professional MMA fighters across the sport. "I am proud to stand up for professional MMA fighters to unlock the UFC's stranglehold on the entire sport," said Phil Davis. The lawsuit seeks to build on the success of Berger Montague's class action lawsuit against the UFC, which resulted in an historic $375 million settlement for a class of over 1100 former UFC fighters, following a ten-year legal battle for economic justice. Berger Montague and Mr. Davis are committed to continuing the struggle to vindicate the rights of professional MMA fighters outside of the UFC who have been harmed by the UFC's allegedly illegal scheme. Announcement • May 30
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on June 30, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that its board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend pursuant to which TKO’s Class A common stockholders will receive their pro rata share of an aggregate distribution of approximately $75 million from TKO Operating Company, LLC to its equityholders. The per share dividend to the holders of TKO’s Class A common stockholders will be $0.38 per share. The dividend will be paid on June 30, 2025 to Class A common stockholders of record as of the close of business on June 13, 2025. Announcement • May 28
Wwe and Seagram's Spiked™? Launch First-Ever Co-Branded Product WWE, part of TKO Group Holdings and Seagram's Escapes, known for great tasting flavored malt beverages, announced a new, multi-year partnership highlighted by the launch of their first-ever co-branded product of Seagram's Escapes Spiked. This marks WWE's first-ever licensed ready-to-drink product. As an Official Partner of WWE, Se Instagram's Escapes Spiked will receive prominent integrations within Premium Live Events such as Money In The Bank®?, which takes place Saturday, June 7 at the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, as well as SummerSlam®? and Survivor Series®?, highlighted by enhanced match sponsorships, a custom digital content series featuring WWE Superstars and more. The Seagram's Escapes Spike WWE series - featuring flavors such as Rumble Punch™? (Jamaican Me Happy), Pineapple Powerhouse™? (Pineapple Cherry Lime), and Slammin' Blueberry™? (Blueberry Lemon) - is now available at retailers nationwide. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 27
Now 21% overvalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days, currently trading at US$159. The fair value is estimated to be US$132, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 35% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • May 24
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 EPS estimate increased from US$2.52 to US$2.82. Revenue forecast steady at US$4.52b. Net income forecast to grow 86% next year vs 42% growth forecast for Entertainment industry in the US. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at US$181. Share price fell 3.5% to US$158 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 12
Now 21% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 9.0% to US$161. The fair value is estimated to be US$133, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 41% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • May 12
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 272% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.72 (up from US$1.26 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$1.27b (up 101% from 1Q 2024). Net income: US$58.4m (up US$162.2m from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 4.6% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 18%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • May 09
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. revised earnings guidance for the full year 2025. In February, the company issued revenue to be in the range of $2.930 billion to $3.000 billion for the full year 2025. These amounts reflected the expected performance for the company’s existing business, consisting of UFC, WWE and Corporate, including twelve months of management fees paid by the Company to Endeavor under a services agreement. Based on strong performance at UFC and WWE through the first three months of the year and its anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, the company is raising its guidance, excluding the expected impact from the Acquired Businesses, and is now targeting full year 2025 revenue of $3.005 billion to $3.075 billion. New Risk • Apr 30
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 16% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Apr 28
TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2025. Announcement • Apr 10
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 08, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results After-Market on May 08, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Mar 07
Inaugural dividend of US$0.38 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 March 2025. Payment date: 31 March 2025. This is the first dividend for TKO Group Holdings since going public. The average dividend yield among industry peers is 1.3%. Announcement • Mar 01
Tko Group Holdings, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Year 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the year 2025. For the year, the Company is targeting revenue of $2.930 billion to $3.000 billion. Reported Earnings • Feb 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$0.12 (up from US$0.42 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: US$2.80b (up 67% from FY 2023). Net income: US$9.41m (up US$44.6m from FY 2023). Profit margin: 0.3% (up from net loss in FY 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.3% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Feb 27
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announces Quarterly dividend, payable on March 31, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced Quarterly dividend of USD 0.3800 per share payable on March 31, 2025, ex-date on March 14, 2025 and record date on March 14, 2025. Announcement • Jan 30
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 26, 2025 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 26, 2025 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jan 05
COO, President & Director notifies of intention to sell stock Mark Shapiro intends to sell 63k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 3rd of January. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$143, it would amount to US$9.0m. Since June 2024, Mark's direct individual holding has increased from 12.53k shares to 42.16k. Company insiders have collectively sold US$9.2m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 20
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.3% to US$131. The fair value is estimated to be US$108, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Reported Earnings • Nov 07
Third quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.29 (up from US$0.26 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: US$681.3m (up 52% from 3Q 2023). Net income: US$23.1m (up US$45.0m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 3.4% (up from net loss in 3Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 51%. Revenue is forecast to grow 8.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.0% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Oct 25
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:TKO) announces an Equity Buyback for $2,000 million worth of its shares. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: TKO) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to $2,000 million worth of its shares. The program has no expiration date. Announcement • Oct 10
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 06, 2024 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results After-Market on Nov 06, 2024 Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Sep 18
COO, President & Director notifies of intention to sell stock Mark Shapiro intends to sell 61k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 16th of September. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$117, it would amount to US$7.1m. Since December 2023, Mark has owned 12.53k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold US$6.4m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • Aug 09
Second quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.73 (up from US$1.05 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$851.2m (up 179% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$59.1m (up US$146.7m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 6.9% (up from net loss in 2Q 2023). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 10%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 19%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.8% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Jul 24
Director notifies of intention to sell stock Nick Khan intends to sell 23k shares in the next 90 days after lodging an Intent To Sell Form on the 22nd of July. If the sale is conducted around the recent share price of US$106, it would amount to US$2.4m. Since September 2023, Nick has owned 53.89k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively bought US$3.4m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Announcement • Jul 12
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 08, 2024 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results Pre-Market on Aug 08, 2024 Announcement • May 10
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2024 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. revised earnings guidance for the full year 2024. For the period, the Company is targeting revenue of $2.610 billion to $2.685 billion. Reported Earnings • May 09
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2024 results: US$1.26 loss per share (down from US$1.06 profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue: US$629.7m (up 105% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: US$103.8m (down 219% from profit in 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.3% growth forecast for the Entertainment industry in the US. Announcement • Apr 27
TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2024 TKO Group Holdings, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Jun 12, 2024, at 16:30 US Eastern Standard Time. Agenda: To elect Ariel Emanuel, Mark Shapiro, Peter C.B. Bynoe, Egon P. Durban, Dwayne Johnson, Bradley A. Keywell, Nick Khan, Steven R. Koonin, Jonathan A. Kraft, Sonya E. Medina, Nancy R. Tellem and Carrie Wheeler to serve as directors on the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) for a term expiring at the Company’s annual meeting of stockholders to be held in 2025 (the “2025 Annual Meeting”) and until his or her respective successor has been elected and qualified or until his or her earlier death, resignation, retirement, disqualification or removal; to approve, on an advisory, non-binding basis, the Company’s executive compensation; and to consider other matters. Announcement • Apr 17
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 08, 2024 TKO Group Holdings, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results After-Market on May 08, 2024 Announcement • Apr 08
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:TKO) announces an Equity Buyback for 1,853,724 shares, for $165 million. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:TKO) announces a share repurchase program. Under the program, the company will repurchase up to 1,853,724 shares for $165 million. The shares will be repurchased at price of $89.01 per share. The repurchases will be funded from revolving credit facility and with cash on hand. The repurchased shares will be retired. The repurchase program is valid till April 10, 2024, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.