Can Roblox’s (RBLX) Viral Surge Sustain Monetization Momentum Despite Persistent Losses?

• Roblox Corporation recently reported third-quarter 2025 results, with revenue climbing to US$1.36 billion and bookings reaching US$1.92 billion, both well ahead of the previous year, as user engagement and daily active users sharply increased to 151.5 million.
• A standout factor was the substantial impact of viral content and creator investments, which drove a 91% jump in user hours and fueled robust platform monetization despite ongoing net losses.
• We'll now examine how the strong user engagement and viral content growth highlighted in these results may shape Roblox's investment narrative.

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Roblox Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Roblox, you need to believe that sustained user engagement, viral content, and ever-growing creator participation can ultimately support a path to profitability, despite ongoing net losses and high fixed costs. The latest results reinforce this narrative: exceptional bookings and user hours show strong platform momentum, but the key short-term catalyst remains the repeatability of viral content, while the main risk is continued margin pressure from rising payouts and infrastructure spending. The earnings beat does not materially lessen these risks or strengthen the catalyst, but it keeps them firmly in focus.

One of the most relevant announcements came during the 2025 Developers Conference, where Roblox introduced new tools for creators, aligning with the ongoing surge in user-generated experiences and viral hits. This continued push to empower and reward its developer community is central to unlocking more frequent blockbuster titles, which sit at the heart of both Roblox’s topline growth ambitions and its exposure to the unpredictability of viral trends.

In contrast, an ongoing issue that investors should be aware of is how expanding developer and content payouts can impact Roblox’s net margins if...

Read the full narrative on Roblox (it's free!)

Roblox's narrative projects $9.6 billion revenue and $903.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 33.5% yearly revenue growth and a $1,855.6 million increase in earnings from the current -$952.3 million.

Uncover how Roblox's forecasts yield a $147.26 fair value, a 45% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seventeen members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Roblox’s fair value from as low as US$14.10 to as high as US$175, highlighting significant divergence. With rapid user growth fueling recent results, consider how continued spending on creators and infrastructure could affect long-term returns as you explore other viewpoints.

Explore 17 other fair value estimates on Roblox - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Roblox Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Roblox research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Roblox research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Roblox's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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