Is Disney Stock Fairly Priced After Streaming Pivot and Theme Park Focus in 2025?

• Wondering whether Walt Disney is a comeback value story or still priced for magic, not math, right now? We are going to break down what the current share price really implies.
• Despite a choppy few years, the stock is up around 0.4% over the last week, 5.3% over the past month, and 1.6% over the last year, while still sitting well below its 5 year level with a 34.1% decline.
• Recently, investors have been watching moves like Disney doubling down on its streaming strategy and sharpening its focus on theme parks and experiences, signaling a push toward more predictable cash flows. At the same time, board level changes and strategic deals in content and sports have kept sentiment shifting as the market reassesses the company story.
• On our checks, Disney scores a 3/6 valuation score, suggesting the stock looks undervalued on some metrics but not a screaming bargain across the board. Next, we will unpack those different valuation approaches, before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the market is really pricing in.

Find out why Walt Disney's 1.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Walt Disney Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today. For Walt Disney, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

Disney currently generates about $11.8 billion in free cash flow in $, and analyst forecasts combined with Simply Wall St extrapolations see this rising to roughly $17.4 billion by 2035. Over the next decade, that path runs through projected free cash flows between about $9.8 billion and $13.3 billion in $, with later years growing at gradually slowing estimated rates.

When all those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of $106.36 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is around 5.2% overvalued. This is close enough that it effectively sits in fair value territory rather than a clear bargain or an obvious bubble.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Walt Disney is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Walt Disney.

Approach 2: Walt Disney Price vs Earnings

For profitable businesses like Walt Disney, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are paying for each dollar of current profit. A higher PE can be justified when a company has strong growth prospects and relatively low perceived risk. In contrast, slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower, more conservative multiple.

Disney currently trades on a PE of about 16.1x, which is below both the Entertainment industry average of roughly 19.5x and the broader peer group sitting near 67.5x. To move beyond these blunt comparisons, Simply Wall St calculates a Fair Ratio, the PE you might reasonably expect based on Disney specific factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. For Disney, that Fair Ratio is estimated at 23.7x.

Because this Fair Ratio is meaningfully higher than the current 16.1x, the multiple analysis suggests investors are not fully pricing in Disney earnings power and prospects at today share price.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1455 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Walt Disney Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of the Walt Disney story with your own forecast for its revenue, earnings and margins, and then translate that into a fair value you can compare to today’s share price.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is a structured story behind the numbers. You set assumptions for how fast Disney’s streaming, sports and experiences businesses might grow, what profit margins could look like, and what multiple the market might pay if that plays out.

This turns your investment view into a concrete, dynamic valuation that links the company’s story to a forward-looking forecast, and then to a Fair Value you can easily compare with the current Price so you can decide whether you think Disney is a buy, hold, or sell.

Narratives live inside the Community page on Simply Wall St, are used by millions of investors, and are automatically refreshed when new information such as earnings or major news arrives. This means your fair value view updates as the story changes.

For example, one Narrative might see Disney’s fair value near $131.50 with streaming and sports driving higher margins, while a more cautious Narrative could anchor closer to $79.00 if growth, profitability and the multiple all end up lower than hoped.

Do you think there's more to the story for Walt Disney? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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