Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that TNL Mediagene (NASDAQ:TNMG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is TNL Mediagene's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2024 TNL Mediagene had debt of US$18.0m, up from US$11.6m in one year. However, it does have US$3.65m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$14.4m.
A Look At TNL Mediagene's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that TNL Mediagene had liabilities of US$33.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$23.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$3.65m and US$12.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$40.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$21.4m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, TNL Mediagene would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is TNL Mediagene's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
View our latest analysis for TNL Mediagene
In the last year TNL Mediagene wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 35%, to US$48m. Shareholders probably have their fingers crossed that it can grow its way to profits.
Caveat Emptor
While we can certainly appreciate TNL Mediagene's revenue growth, its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is not ideal. Its EBIT loss was a whopping US$47m. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. Not least because it burned through US$11m in negative free cash flow over the last year. So suffice it to say we consider the stock to be risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with TNL Mediagene (including 2 which are concerning) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqCM:TNMG
Low and slightly overvalued.
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