JOYY Inc. (NASDAQ:JOYY) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a pretty great week for JOYY Inc. (NASDAQ:JOYY) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$48.21 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, JOYY's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$2.13b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 88% to US$4.10 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.62 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for JOYY

The consensus price target held steady at US$52.57, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on JOYY, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$64.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2025 compared to the historical decline of 10% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect JOYY to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JOYY. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for JOYY going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - JOYY has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.