Gambling.com Group Limited's (NASDAQ:GAMB) 26% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Gambling.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:GAMB) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 15x, you may consider Gambling.com Group as a stock to avoid entirely with its 26.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Gambling.com Group could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Gambling.com Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 28%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 30% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 0.7% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Gambling.com Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Gambling.com Group's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Gambling.com Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Gambling.com Group that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Gambling.com Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.