GCM Mining (OTCPK:TPRF.F) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TPRF.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TPRF.F ($2.73) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($34.72)

TPRF.F fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

TPRF.F Stock Overview

GCM Mining Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia.

Rewards

Trading at 92.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 36.94% per year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

GCM Mining Competitors

Gold Resource

NYSEAM:GORO

US$149.3m

Caledonia Mining

NYSEAM:CMCL

US$147.1m

Fortitude Gold

OTCPK:FTCO

US$144.9m

DRDGOLD

NYSE:DRD

US$521.6m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for GCM Mining
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CA$2.73
52 Week High	CA$4.93
52 Week Low	CA$2.72
Beta	1.32
1 Month Change	-22.44%
3 Month Change	-41.29%
1 Year Change	-33.58%
3 Year Change	-18.95%
5 Year Change	145.95%
Change since IPO	-98.87%

Shareholder Returns

	TPRF.F	US Metals and Mining	US Market
7D	-5.9%	-2.2%	1.6%
1Y	-33.6%	-11.3%	-20.8%

Return vs Industry: TPRF.F underperformed the US Metals and Mining industry which returned -9.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TPRF.F underperformed the US Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TPRF.F's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TPRF.F volatility
TPRF.F Average Weekly Movement	6.3%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	10.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: TPRF.F is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TPRF.F's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	2,081	Lombardo Paredes-Arenas	https://www.gcm-mining.com

GCM Mining Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver properties primarily in Colombia. The company holds interests in the Segovia operations comprising the El Silencio, Providencia, and Sandra K underground mines located in Colombia. It also owns interest in the Zancudo project located in the Titiribí mining district of Antioquia.

GCM Mining Fundamentals Summary

How do GCM Mining's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TPRF.F fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$267.96m
Earnings (TTM)	US$66.90m
Revenue (TTM)	US$369.47m

4.0x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is TPRF.F overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TPRF.F income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$369.47m
Cost of Revenue	US$196.62m
Gross Profit	US$172.85m
Other Expenses	US$105.95m
Earnings	US$66.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.68
Gross Margin	46.78%
Net Profit Margin	18.11%
Debt/Equity Ratio	63.0%

How did TPRF.F perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.0%

Current Dividend Yield

20%

Payout Ratio

Does TPRF.F pay a reliable dividends?

See TPRF.F dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy TPRF.F by to receive an upcoming dividend?
GCM Mining dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jun 29 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend	2 days
Days until Dividend pay date	14 days

Does TPRF.F pay a reliable dividends?

See TPRF.F dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TPRF.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPRF.F?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TPRF.F. This is calculated by dividing TPRF.F's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TPRF.F's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$267.96m

TPRF.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	1.6x
PEG Ratio	0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TPRF.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TPRF.F PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TPRF.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10x
GORO Gold Resource	15.7x	n/a	US$149.3m
CMCL Caledonia Mining	7.6x	17.7%	US$147.1m
FTCO Fortitude Gold	8x	n/a	US$144.9m
DRD DRDGOLD	8.6x	-6.3%	US$521.6m
TPRF.F GCM Mining	4x	36.9%	US$345.5m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TPRF.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (10x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TPRF.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TPRF.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (8.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPRF.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPRF.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4x
Fair PE Ratio	24.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TPRF.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPRF.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPRF.F ($2.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($34.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPRF.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TPRF.F is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.1x)

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Future Growth

How is GCM Mining forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

36.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TPRF.F's forecast earnings growth (36.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TPRF.F's earnings (36.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TPRF.F's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TPRF.F's revenue (25.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TPRF.F's revenue (25.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if TPRF.F's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has GCM Mining performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

25.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TPRF.F has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TPRF.F's current net profit margins (18.1%) are lower than last year (25.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TPRF.F has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 25.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: TPRF.F's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TPRF.F had negative earnings growth (-29.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Metals and Mining industry average (94.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: TPRF.F's Return on Equity (13.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is GCM Mining's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TPRF.F's short term assets ($379.1M) exceed its short term liabilities ($59.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: TPRF.F's short term assets ($379.1M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($462.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TPRF.F has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: TPRF.F's debt to equity ratio has increased from 45.9% to 63% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TPRF.F's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (29.3%).

Interest Coverage: TPRF.F's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (9.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is GCM Mining current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

5.04%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TPRF.F's dividend (5.04%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.59%).

High Dividend: TPRF.F's dividend (5.04%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, TPRF.F has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TPRF.F's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (19.6%), TPRF.F's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (72.8%), TPRF.F's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Lombardo Paredes-Arenas (74 yo)

8.25yrs

Tenure

US$1,029,003

Compensation

Mr. Lombardo Paredes-Arenas has been an Independent Director of Western Atlas Resources Inc. since January 10, 2020. He served as the President of Aris Gold Corporation (formerly known as Caldas Gold Corpo...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Lombardo's total compensation ($USD1.03M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.76M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Lombardo's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TPRF.F's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TPRF.F's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: TPRF.F insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/29 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31