Nippon Steel Corporation

OTCPK:NIST.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$21.5b

Nippon Steel Valuation

Is NIST.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NIST.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$6.23
Fair Value
28.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NIST.F ($4.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($6.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NIST.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NIST.F?

Key metric: As NIST.F is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NIST.F. This is calculated by dividing NIST.F's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NIST.F's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.4x
SalesJP¥8.51t
Market CapJP¥3.17t

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NIST.F's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NIST.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
STLD Steel Dynamics
1.2x7.55%US$21.4b
RS Reliance
1.1x3.39%US$14.9b
NUE Nucor
1x6.23%US$31.7b
TX Ternium
0.4x4.46%US$7.1b
NIST.F Nippon Steel
0.4x6.03%US$3.2t

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NIST.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NIST.F's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

30 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.9x6.6%
NIST.F Nippon Steel
 0.4x6.03%US$21.47b
TX Ternium
0.4x4.46%US$7.09b
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs
0.3x5.48%US$6.31b
NIST.F 0.4xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies29PS02.44.87.29.612+
30 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.2.9x16.8%
NIST.F Nippon Steel
 0.4x41.28%US$21.47b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NIST.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (2.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NIST.F's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NIST.F PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.4x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NIST.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NIST.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$4.45
US$4.74
+6.51%
15.97%US$5.83US$3.26n/a11
Sep ’26US$4.30
US$4.61
+7.32%
17.20%US$5.84US$3.26n/a11
Aug ’26US$3.90
US$4.54
+16.39%
16.93%US$5.83US$3.26n/a11
Jul ’26US$3.93
US$4.83
+22.81%
17.12%US$5.92US$3.30n/a10
Jun ’26US$4.49
US$5.27
+17.51%
9.92%US$5.98US$4.38n/a10
May ’26n/a
US$5.21
0%
9.92%US$5.91US$4.33n/a10
Apr ’26n/a
US$5.15
0%
12.29%US$6.38US$4.20n/a10
Mar ’26US$4.60
US$5.05
+9.71%
11.21%US$6.15US$4.19n/a10
Feb ’26n/a
US$4.77
0%
16.90%US$5.97US$2.84n/a10
Jan ’26n/a
US$4.78
0%
18.60%US$6.01US$2.81n/a9
Dec ’25US$4.20
US$5.03
+19.76%
19.58%US$6.22US$2.91n/a9
Nov ’25US$3.85
US$5.05
+31.28%
19.09%US$6.19US$2.90n/a9
Oct ’25n/a
US$5.49
0%
15.81%US$6.61US$3.66US$4.269
Sep ’25US$4.60
US$5.43
+17.97%
16.68%US$6.43US$3.56US$4.309
Aug ’25US$4.11
US$5.35
+30.13%
15.72%US$6.28US$3.47US$3.9010
Jul ’25US$4.16
US$5.02
+20.68%
15.75%US$5.84US$3.23US$3.9310
Jun ’25n/a
US$5.26
0%
16.74%US$6.24US$3.31US$4.4910
May ’25US$4.59
US$5.38
+17.24%
16.10%US$6.34US$3.36n/a10
Apr ’25n/a
US$5.36
0%
15.39%US$6.21US$3.43n/a10
Mar ’25n/a
US$5.30
0%
14.55%US$6.11US$3.46US$4.6010
Feb ’25US$4.82
US$5.17
+7.33%
16.02%US$6.21US$3.38n/a10
Jan ’25US$4.60
US$5.36
+16.52%
15.36%US$6.39US$3.47n/a10
Dec ’24US$4.74
US$5.20
+9.75%
15.36%US$6.21US$3.37US$4.2010
Nov ’24n/a
US$5.00
0%
15.77%US$6.10US$3.31US$3.8510
Oct ’24n/a
US$4.88
0%
15.80%US$6.22US$3.25n/a11
US$5.13
Fair Value
13.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/05 12:13
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/03 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Nippon Steel Corporation is covered by 32 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Toshiyuki JohnoBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Takashi EnomotoBofA Global Research
Toshiyuki JohnoCitigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.