Fortescue Valuation

Is FSUM.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FSUM.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FSUM.F ($12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($24.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FSUM.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FSUM.F?

Key metric: As FSUM.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FSUM.F. This is calculated by dividing FSUM.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FSUM.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.4x
EarningsUS$5.68b
Market CapUS$36.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FSUM.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FSUM.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
NUE Nucor
14.2x10.1%US$35.7b
STLD Steel Dynamics
12.5x0.3%US$21.9b
RS Reliance
16.6x-3.1%US$17.3b
X United States Steel
22.4x35.3%US$8.8b
FSUM.F Fortescue
6.4x-27.1%US$56.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FSUM.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FSUM.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$5.00m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
FSUM.F 6.4xIndustry Avg. 19.3xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FSUM.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FSUM.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FSUM.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FSUM.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FSUM.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.00
US$12.20
+1.7%
12.6%US$15.12US$9.62n/a17
Nov ’25US$13.01
US$12.25
-5.8%
13.0%US$15.25US$9.62n/a16
Oct ’25US$13.91
US$12.57
-9.7%
13.2%US$16.45US$9.57n/a16
Sep ’25US$12.40
US$12.85
+3.7%
15.4%US$17.11US$9.68n/a17
Aug ’25US$12.20
US$12.76
+4.6%
15.0%US$17.11US$9.34n/a17
Jul ’25US$14.28
US$13.97
-2.1%
16.8%US$17.52US$8.29n/a17
Jun ’25US$16.49
US$14.10
-14.5%
16.3%US$17.52US$8.78n/a17
May ’25US$16.75
US$14.11
-15.8%
16.5%US$17.52US$8.78n/a16
Apr ’25US$17.11
US$14.36
-16.1%
14.4%US$17.11US$9.20n/a16
Mar ’25US$17.13
US$14.56
-15.0%
12.2%US$17.11US$11.31n/a16
Feb ’25US$19.77
US$14.62
-26.1%
11.9%US$17.12US$11.39n/a15
Jan ’25US$19.44
US$13.75
-29.3%
15.5%US$17.76US$10.72n/a15
Dec ’24US$17.00
US$12.70
-25.3%
13.6%US$15.83US$10.09n/a15
Nov ’24US$14.60
US$11.93
-18.3%
13.9%US$15.38US$9.97US$13.0115
Oct ’24US$13.46
US$11.37
-15.5%
16.2%US$15.57US$8.86US$13.9115
Sep ’24US$13.63
US$11.09
-18.6%
11.5%US$12.93US$8.86US$12.4017
Aug ’24US$14.37
US$12.00
-16.5%
12.4%US$15.34US$9.77US$12.2017
Jul ’24US$14.76
US$11.80
-20.0%
9.5%US$13.31US$9.95US$14.2817
Jun ’24US$12.85
US$11.78
-8.3%
12.4%US$15.37US$9.27US$16.4917
May ’24US$13.80
US$11.79
-14.5%
12.2%US$15.37US$9.42US$16.7517
Apr ’24US$14.90
US$11.79
-20.9%
13.1%US$15.83US$9.43US$17.1117
Mar ’24US$15.03
US$11.97
-20.3%
14.5%US$15.83US$9.29US$17.1318
Feb ’24US$15.68
US$12.13
-22.7%
15.4%US$16.27US$9.02US$19.7719
Jan ’24US$13.70
US$11.05
-19.3%
15.9%US$14.68US$7.86US$19.4419
Dec ’23US$13.62
US$10.51
-22.8%
15.6%US$14.68US$7.86US$17.0019
Nov ’23US$10.01
US$10.05
+0.4%
14.0%US$14.68US$7.85US$14.6019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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