Arafura Rare Earths Limited

OTCPK:ARAF.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$192.2m

Arafura Rare Earths Valuation

Is ARAF.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARAF.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARAF.F's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ARAF.F's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARAF.F?

Key metric: As ARAF.F is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for ARAF.F. This is calculated by dividing ARAF.F's market cap by their current book value.
What is ARAF.F's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio2.1x
BookAU$144.11m
Market CapAU$295.72m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does ARAF.F's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for ARAF.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.9x
REEM.F Rare Element Resources
6.7xn/aUS$188.4m
IDR Idaho Strategic Resources
4.9x30.3%US$158.5m
USGO U.S. GoldMining
12.9xn/aUS$160.2m
EUBG Entrepreneur Universe Bright Group
42.9xn/aUS$362.2m
ARAF.F Arafura Rare Earths
2.1x5.8%US$295.7m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: ARAF.F is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.1x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does ARAF.F's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NEVD.Q Nevada Copper
0.1xn/aUS$26.02m
VITF.F Victoria Gold
0.06xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.1xn/aUS$6.20m
LITM Snow Lake Resources
0.2xn/aUS$3.58m
ARAF.F 2.1xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies14PB012345+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: ARAF.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.1x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARAF.F's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARAF.F PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio2.1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ARAF.F's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARAF.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.079
US$0.12
+56.6%
27.2%US$0.17US$0.088n/a3
Nov ’25US$0.099
US$0.12
+25.4%
27.2%US$0.17US$0.088n/a3
Oct ’25US$0.11
US$0.12
+3.0%
35.4%US$0.17US$0.067n/a3
Sep ’25US$0.11
US$0.12
+6.2%
35.4%US$0.17US$0.067n/a3
Aug ’25US$0.13
US$0.088
-32.0%
25.9%US$0.11US$0.065n/a2
Jul ’25US$0.12
US$0.16
+33.4%
46.3%US$0.26US$0.092n/a3
Jun ’25US$0.14
US$0.16
+14.4%
46.3%US$0.26US$0.092n/a3
May ’25US$0.14
US$0.16
+18.6%
46.3%US$0.26US$0.092n/a3
Apr ’25US$0.14
US$0.17
+23.2%
35.5%US$0.26US$0.12n/a3
Mar ’25US$0.097
US$0.13
+35.6%
5.0%US$0.14US$0.13n/a2
Feb ’25US$0.081
US$0.13
+63.2%
5.0%US$0.14US$0.13n/a2
Jan ’25US$0.12
US$0.22
+86.4%
35.4%US$0.29US$0.14n/a2
Dec ’24US$0.12
US$0.31
+153.3%
35.4%US$0.43US$0.16n/a3
Nov ’24US$0.13
US$0.35
+167.8%
39.3%US$0.47US$0.16US$0.0993
Oct ’24US$0.16
US$0.39
+141.6%
24.5%US$0.49US$0.26US$0.113
Sep ’24US$0.16
US$0.39
+145.1%
24.5%US$0.49US$0.26US$0.113
Aug ’24US$0.21
US$0.43
+108.4%
25.4%US$0.52US$0.28US$0.133
Jul ’24US$0.20
US$0.47
+128.5%
9.4%US$0.51US$0.41US$0.123
Jun ’24US$0.23
US$0.46
+97.9%
9.4%US$0.50US$0.40US$0.143
May ’24US$0.27
US$0.46
+71.2%
9.4%US$0.50US$0.40US$0.143
Apr ’24US$0.34
US$0.46
+34.6%
9.4%US$0.50US$0.40US$0.143
Mar ’24US$0.43
US$0.50
+16.2%
2.0%US$0.51US$0.49US$0.0972

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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