Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc

NYSEAM:CMCL Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$237.6m

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Caledonia Mining Valuation

Is CMCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMCL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CMCL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.4x
PEG Ratio-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.2x
FTCO Fortitude Gold
11.3xn/aUS$151.3m
DRD DRDGOLD
10.2x-28.2%US$673.5m
GKIN Guskin Gold
8xn/aUS$55.2m
DYNR DynaResource
7.2xn/aUS$52.3m
CMCL Caledonia Mining
8.1x-12.9%US$237.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.7%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (7.8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.1x
Fair PE Ratio6.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMCL ($13.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMCL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$13.75
US$15.18
+10.4%
23.1%US$19.50US$10.92n/a3
Jan ’24US$12.40
US$15.18
+22.4%
23.1%US$19.50US$10.92n/a3
Dec ’23US$11.46
US$15.18
+32.4%
23.1%US$19.50US$10.92n/a3
Nov ’23US$10.79
US$15.18
+40.7%
23.1%US$19.50US$10.92n/a3
Oct ’23US$9.82
US$15.18
+54.6%
23.1%US$19.50US$10.92n/a3
Sep ’23US$9.23
US$17.31
+87.5%
12.7%US$19.50US$15.12n/a2
Aug ’23US$11.39
US$17.28
+51.7%
12.9%US$19.50US$15.05n/a2
Jul ’23US$11.45
US$19.00
+65.9%
0%US$19.00US$19.00n/a1
Jun ’23US$13.24
US$19.00
+43.5%
0%US$19.00US$19.00n/a1
May ’23US$14.01
US$19.00
+35.6%
0%US$19.00US$19.00n/a1
Apr ’23US$15.24
US$19.00
+24.7%
0%US$19.00US$19.00n/a1
Mar ’23US$12.29
US$19.00
+54.6%
0%US$19.00US$19.00n/a1
Feb ’23US$11.69
US$19.00
+62.5%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$14.091
Jan ’23US$11.66
US$19.00
+63.0%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$12.401
Dec ’22US$12.10
US$19.00
+57.0%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$11.461
Nov ’22US$12.72
US$19.00
+49.4%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$10.791
Oct ’22US$12.32
US$19.00
+54.2%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$9.821
Sep ’22US$12.20
US$19.00
+55.7%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$9.231
Aug ’22US$12.71
US$19.00
+49.5%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$11.391
Jul ’22US$12.01
US$19.00
+58.2%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$11.451
Jun ’22US$14.64
US$19.00
+29.8%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$13.241
May ’22US$13.91
US$19.00
+36.6%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$14.011
Apr ’22US$14.85
US$19.00
+27.9%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$15.241
Mar ’22US$13.66
US$19.00
+39.1%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$12.291
Feb ’22US$15.29
US$19.00
+24.3%
0%US$19.00US$19.00US$11.691

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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