Caledonia Mining Valuation
Is CMCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMCL?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is CMCL's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$237.65m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 4.4x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 9.2x | ||
FTCO Fortitude Gold | 11.3x | n/a | US$151.3m |
DRD DRDGOLD | 10.2x | -28.2% | US$673.5m |
GKIN Guskin Gold | 8x | n/a | US$55.2m |
DYNR DynaResource | 7.2x | n/a | US$52.3m |
CMCL Caledonia Mining | 8.1x | -12.9% | US$237.6m |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CMCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 8.1x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 6.4x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CMCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CMCL ($13.75) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.83)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CMCL is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$13.75 | US$15.18 +10.4% | 23.1% | US$19.50 | US$10.92 | n/a | 3 |
| Jan ’24 | US$12.40 | US$15.18 +22.4% | 23.1% | US$19.50 | US$10.92 | n/a | 3 |
| Dec ’23 | US$11.46 | US$15.18 +32.4% | 23.1% | US$19.50 | US$10.92 | n/a | 3 |
| Nov ’23 | US$10.79 | US$15.18 +40.7% | 23.1% | US$19.50 | US$10.92 | n/a | 3 |
| Oct ’23 | US$9.82 | US$15.18 +54.6% | 23.1% | US$19.50 | US$10.92 | n/a | 3 |
| Sep ’23 | US$9.23 | US$17.31 +87.5% | 12.7% | US$19.50 | US$15.12 | n/a | 2 |
| Aug ’23 | US$11.39 | US$17.28 +51.7% | 12.9% | US$19.50 | US$15.05 | n/a | 2 |
| Jul ’23 | US$11.45 | US$19.00 +65.9% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 1 |
| Jun ’23 | US$13.24 | US$19.00 +43.5% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 1 |
| May ’23 | US$14.01 | US$19.00 +35.6% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 1 |
| Apr ’23 | US$15.24 | US$19.00 +24.7% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 1 |
| Mar ’23 | US$12.29 | US$19.00 +54.6% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 1 |
| Feb ’23 | US$11.69 | US$19.00 +62.5% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$14.09 | 1 |
| Jan ’23 | US$11.66 | US$19.00 +63.0% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$12.40 | 1 |
| Dec ’22 | US$12.10 | US$19.00 +57.0% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$11.46 | 1 |
| Nov ’22 | US$12.72 | US$19.00 +49.4% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$10.79 | 1 |
| Oct ’22 | US$12.32 | US$19.00 +54.2% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$9.82 | 1 |
| Sep ’22 | US$12.20 | US$19.00 +55.7% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$9.23 | 1 |
| Aug ’22 | US$12.71 | US$19.00 +49.5% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$11.39 | 1 |
| Jul ’22 | US$12.01 | US$19.00 +58.2% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$11.45 | 1 |
| Jun ’22 | US$14.64 | US$19.00 +29.8% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$13.24 | 1 |
| May ’22 | US$13.91 | US$19.00 +36.6% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$14.01 | 1 |
| Apr ’22 | US$14.85 | US$19.00 +27.9% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$15.24 | 1 |
| Mar ’22 | US$13.66 | US$19.00 +39.1% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$12.29 | 1 |
| Feb ’22 | US$15.29 | US$19.00 +24.3% | 0% | US$19.00 | US$19.00 | US$11.69 | 1 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.