Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc

NYSEAM:CMCL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$392.5m

Caledonia Mining Valuation

Is CMCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$26.08
Fair Value
20.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
2
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CMCL ($20.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMCL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMCL?

Key metric: As CMCL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMCL. This is calculated by dividing CMCL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMCL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUS$24.69m
Market CapUS$392.46m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.4x
DRD DRDGOLD
12.3xn/aUS$1.2b
VGZ Vista Gold
13.2xn/aUS$126.1m
XTGR.F Xtra-Gold Resources
27xn/aUS$68.4m
BVN Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA
8.9x4.35%US$4.2b
CMCL Caledonia Mining
16.3x33.23%US$392.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.4xn/aUS$4.09m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
CMLG.F CaNickel Mining
0.1xn/aUS$750.41k
CMCL 16.3xIndustry Avg. 23.2xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (23.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$20.86
US$20.88
+0.072%
0.60%US$21.00US$20.75n/a2
Jul ’26US$20.16
US$20.88
+3.55%
0.60%US$21.00US$20.75n/a2
Jun ’26US$17.10
US$20.25
+18.42%
3.70%US$21.00US$19.50n/a2
May ’26US$12.78
US$18.13
+41.82%
0.69%US$18.25US$18.00n/a2
Apr ’26US$11.67
US$17.50
+49.96%
2.86%US$18.00US$17.00n/a2
Mar ’26US$10.07
US$15.50
+53.92%
9.68%US$17.00US$14.00n/a2
Feb ’26US$9.39
US$15.50
+65.07%
9.68%US$17.00US$14.00n/a2
Jan ’26US$9.41
US$17.50
+85.97%
2.86%US$18.00US$17.00n/a2
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 2 Analysts
US$20.88
Fair Value
0.07% undervalued intrinsic discount
2
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/07/11 04:58
End of Day Share Price 2025/07/11 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is covered by 13 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dmitry KalachevCanaccord Genuity
null nullCantor Fitzgerald Canada Corporation
Asa BridleCantor Fitzgerald Europe