Stock Analysis

Ternium (NYSE:TX) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

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NYSE:TX

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Ternium

What Is Ternium's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Ternium had US$1.98b of debt, up from US$892.4m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, its balance sheet shows it holds US$3.84b in cash, so it actually has US$1.85b net cash.

NYSE:TX Debt to Equity History October 14th 2024

How Strong Is Ternium's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Ternium had liabilities of US$4.32b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.18b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$3.84b and US$2.94b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$729.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given Ternium has a market capitalization of US$7.09b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Ternium boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

Even more impressive was the fact that Ternium grew its EBIT by 119% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ternium can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. While Ternium has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. In the last three years, Ternium's free cash flow amounted to 46% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Summing Up

While Ternium does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$1.85b. And we liked the look of last year's 119% year-on-year EBIT growth. So is Ternium's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ternium that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Ternium might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.