Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

NYSE:TFPM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.5b

Triple Flag Precious Metals Valuation

Is TFPM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TFPM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TFPM ($17.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($25.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TFPM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TFPM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TFPM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA20x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TFPM's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TFPM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.9x
BVN Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA
2.8x1.3%US$3.2b
CDE Coeur Mining
2.6x20.3%US$2.4b
DRD DRDGOLD
2.6xn/aUS$1.0b
RGLD Royal Gold
15.7x19.7%US$9.7b
TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals
14x4.8%US$4.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (5.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TFPM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.5%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.5%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TFPM's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TFPM PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio14x
Fair PS Ratio7.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TFPM is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TFPM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$17.15
US$20.12
+17.3%
15.2%US$24.67US$14.42n/a9
Oct ’25US$16.31
US$20.31
+24.5%
11.6%US$25.20US$16.09n/a9
Sep ’25US$16.35
US$20.03
+22.5%
11.6%US$24.99US$16.09n/a9
Aug ’25US$15.22
US$19.71
+29.5%
11.5%US$24.60US$16.09n/a9
Jul ’25US$15.42
US$19.44
+26.1%
10.6%US$23.38US$16.09n/a9
Jun ’25US$16.51
US$19.45
+17.8%
10.2%US$23.36US$16.09n/a9
May ’25US$16.25
US$19.02
+17.1%
11.0%US$23.36US$16.09n/a9
Apr ’25US$14.74
US$17.71
+20.1%
12.3%US$22.79US$15.59n/a9
Mar ’25US$12.93
US$17.72
+37.0%
12.7%US$23.02US$15.59n/a9
Feb ’25US$13.09
US$17.77
+35.7%
11.5%US$22.38US$15.61n/a9
Jan ’25US$13.31
US$17.54
+31.8%
11.9%US$22.50US$15.47n/a9
Dec ’24US$13.89
US$17.31
+24.6%
11.6%US$21.84US$14.82n/a9
Nov ’24US$12.82
US$17.60
+37.3%
11.5%US$21.68US$14.82US$17.029
Oct ’24US$13.07
US$18.05
+38.1%
10.9%US$22.24US$15.89US$16.319
Sep ’24US$13.66
US$18.05
+32.1%
10.5%US$22.39US$15.81US$16.3510
Aug ’24US$13.18
US$18.29
+38.8%
11.5%US$22.79US$15.88US$15.2210
Jul ’24US$13.78
US$18.49
+34.2%
8.2%US$21.30US$16.09US$15.4210
Jun ’24US$14.25
US$18.43
+29.3%
7.7%US$20.74US$16.09US$16.5111
May ’24US$16.22
US$18.41
+13.5%
8.4%US$20.92US$16.09US$16.2511
Apr ’24US$14.95
US$16.41
+9.8%
6.5%US$19.00US$14.68US$14.749
Mar ’24US$13.81
US$16.31
+18.1%
6.2%US$19.00US$14.87US$12.9310
Feb ’24US$13.71
US$16.58
+20.9%
7.9%US$19.00US$14.32US$13.0910
Jan ’24US$13.76
US$15.53
+12.8%
11.0%US$19.00US$13.29US$13.318
Dec ’23US$13.66
US$15.32
+12.1%
10.8%US$19.00US$13.30US$13.898
Nov ’23US$11.26
US$15.26
+35.5%
9.5%US$19.00US$13.20US$12.8210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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