Is Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Packaging Corporation of America

What Is Packaging Corporation of America's Debt?

As you can see below, Packaging Corporation of America had US$2.47b of debt, at June 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$579.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.90b.

How Healthy Is Packaging Corporation of America's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Packaging Corporation of America had liabilities of US$797.7m due within a year, and liabilities of US$3.46b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$579.0m as well as receivables valued at US$1.02b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.66b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Packaging Corporation of America has a huge market capitalization of US$12.9b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Packaging Corporation of America's net debt is only 1.1 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 20.5 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. On the other hand, Packaging Corporation of America's EBIT dived 19%, over the last year. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Packaging Corporation of America can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Packaging Corporation of America recorded free cash flow of 49% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Packaging Corporation of America was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at (not) growing its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Packaging Corporation of America's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Packaging Corporation of America that you should be aware of before investing here.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.