Ingevity Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Ingevity Corporation (NYSE:NGVT) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 11% to US$41.20. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$391m missing analyst predictions by 2.8%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$7.81 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ingevity

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Ingevity, is for revenues of US$1.44b in 2024. This implies a small 7.0% reduction in Ingevity's revenue over the past 12 months. Ingevity is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.34 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.68 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 7.5% to US$49.60. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ingevity at US$58.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ingevity's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ingevity's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ingevity. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Ingevity's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ingevity going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Ingevity that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com