Assessing Knife River (KNF) Valuation after Recent Momentum Shift and Share Price Pullback

Knife River (KNF) shares have cooled off in recent weeks, which has caught the attention of investors curious about what is driving the momentum shift. The stock has seen a pullback over the past month, raising questions about its current valuation.

See our latest analysis for Knife River.

While Knife River’s 1-year total shareholder return is down 38.4%, the stock’s recent slide, such as the 22% drop over 30 days, suggests momentum is currently fading after a strong run last year. Investors are eyeing whether this pullback signals changing risk perceptions or simply a pause in its longer-term story.

If this shift has you rethinking your strategy, now may be the perfect opportunity to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Knife River’s fundamentals facing scrutiny, some metrics still suggest potential upside. The question for investors remains: is there untapped value in the recent pullback, or is the market already factoring in all future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 41.3% Undervalued

Knife River’s widely followed narrative assigns a fair value much higher than the recent close, drawing on bold expectations for growth and margins in years ahead. Consensus comes from analysts projecting profitable expansion and record infrastructure funding, setting the backdrop for high hopes and real debate over what’s possible.

Knife River's record $1.3 billion backlog and exposure to public infrastructure projects, supported by robust, multiyear federal and state Department of Transportation funding (including 60% of IIJA funds still to be spent), positions the company for strong, sustained revenue growth well into 2026 and beyond.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what lies behind such a bullish fair value? The narrative’s math leans on three optimistic assumptions, all hinging on future growth rates, expanding profit margins, and a premium multiple. These numbers might surprise you. Uncover what’s fueling this ambitious target.

Result: Fair Value of $102.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent funding hurdles in Oregon and unpredictable weather disruptions could quickly undermine the optimistic case for Knife River's sustained growth trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Knife River narrative.

Another View: How Market Ratios Stack Up

Looking beyond bold growth forecasts, Knife River’s price-to-earnings ratio is 22.2x. This is slightly above its fair ratio of 21.9x and well above the global industry average of 15.5x. Compared to immediate peers, though, Knife River’s valuation at these levels is more middle of the road. Does this gap hint at heightened risk or a premium worth paying for future growth?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Knife River Narrative

If the current view doesn’t fit your perspective, you can dig into the data and develop your own version of the story in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Knife River research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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