Dow Inc. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

It's been a good week for Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.5% to US$29.95. Revenues came in at US$10b, in line with estimates, while Dow reported a statutory loss of US$0.44 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Dow is for revenues of US$41.8b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 2.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.17 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$42.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.95 in 2025. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding Dow's prospects after these latest results, with a small dip in revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

See our latest analysis for Dow

The consensus price target fell 7.6% to US$36.51, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Dow, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$63.12 and the most bearish at US$27.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Dow's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Dow to become unprofitable next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Dow. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Dow going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Dow (of which 2 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.