Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DNA) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

A week ago, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DNA) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$89m exceeding analyst forecasts by 98%, and statutory losses of US$1.08 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, is for revenues of US$207.7m in 2025. This implies a discernible 4.7% reduction in Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$69.56 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$209.3m and losses of US$69.57 per share in 2025.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$8.40, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.