Aspen Aerogels (ASPN): Evaluating Valuation After Lowered 2025 Outlook and Larger Projected Net Loss

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) just released third quarter earnings, lowering its revenue and earnings outlook for the rest of 2025. Sales fell sharply year-over-year, and the company now anticipates a larger annual net loss, including a hefty impairment charge.

See our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels.

It’s been a punishing year for Aspen Aerogels after a string of disappointing results and lowered guidance. The share price has tumbled 65% in the last month, and the one-year total shareholder return has dropped 78%. Momentum has clearly faded as investors digest lower forecasts, impairment charges, and sharper realized losses.

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With the share price at multiyear lows and analyst targets suggesting significant upside, the question now is whether Aspen Aerogels is undervalued after this steep selloff or if the market is still factoring in further challenges ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 64.8% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Aspen Aerogels’ fair value massively exceeds its last close price. This suggests a deep disconnect between current market sentiment and anticipated recovery. The narrative includes ambitious profit and revenue assumptions and lays out a roadmap for earnings acceleration, presenting a stark contrast to recent results.

Aspen's cost optimization, which has reduced fixed costs by approximately $65M and streamlined operations, substantially lowers the revenue threshold needed to achieve profitability. This greater operating leverage, combined with a stable cost structure and controlled capital expenditures, is set to significantly improve EBITDA and net margin even at modest revenue recovery.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what delivers such a high valuation target? The narrative highlights a potential transformation built on a few critical, and possibly controversial, assumptions. Dramatic shifts in profit and top-line growth drive its outlook. Uncover the full financial leap powering this bold fair value estimate and see what might surprise you in the details.

Result: Fair Value of $8.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower-than-expected recovery in energy industrial demand or ongoing volatility in key EV policies could quickly challenge these optimistic projections.

Find out about the key risks to this Aspen Aerogels narrative.

Build Your Own Aspen Aerogels Narrative

If you believe there’s more to the story, or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can generate your own view in just minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Aspen Aerogels research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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