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Arconic (NYSE:ARNC) Use Of Debt Could Be Considered Risky
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Arconic Corporation (NYSE:ARNC) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Arconic
What Is Arconic's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Arconic had US$1.60b of debt, at December 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$261.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$1.34b.
How Strong Is Arconic's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Arconic had liabilities of US$1.97b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$2.69b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$261.0m and US$974.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.42b.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$2.66b, we think shareholders really should watch Arconic's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Arconic's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.4 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 3.3 times last year. While these numbers do not alarm us, it's worth noting that the cost of the company's debt is having a real impact. Unfortunately, Arconic saw its EBIT slide 2.4% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Arconic's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Arconic burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Arconic's level of total liabilities and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Arconic to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. Given our concerns about Arconic's debt levels, it seems only prudent to check if insiders have been ditching the stock.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
What are the risks and opportunities for Arconic?
Arconic Corporation manufactures and sells fabricated aluminum sheets, plates, extrusions, and architectural products and systems in the United States and internationally.
Rewards
Earnings are forecast to grow 69.41% per year
Risks
No risks detected for ARNC from our risks checks.
Further research on
Arconic
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ARNC
Arconic
Arconic Corporation manufactures and sells fabricated aluminum sheets, plates, extrusions, and architectural products and systems in the United States and internationally.
Adequate balance sheet with moderate growth potential.
