A Look at Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) Valuation Following Launch of Sustainability-Focused Lift-Off Challenge

Amcor (NYSE:AMCR) just rolled out its Lift-Off Winter 2025/26 Challenge, an open call for start-ups worldwide to help develop sustainable packaging solutions. The move highlights how Amcor is focusing on innovation and circularity.

See our latest analysis for Amcor.

Amcor’s push for sustainable packaging, highlighted by the new Lift-Off Challenge, comes as the company seeks to build momentum after some tough stretches for shareholders. While the stock has advanced 4.4% over the past month, helping recover some ground, its total shareholder return remains down 15.5% across the last year and nearly 19% over three years. This points to a period of subdued long-term performance even as recent initiatives generate renewed interest.

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With new initiatives fueling optimism but longer-term returns still lagging, is Amcor’s current share price underappreciating its improved outlook, or is the market already factoring in its pathway to future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

Amcor’s most followed narrative assigns a fair value of $10.41 per share, noticeably above the last close at $8.50. This marks a sharp disconnect from the current market price, shaped by ambitious assumptions about cost synergies and margin expansion in the coming years.

The integration of Berry Global with Amcor is expected to yield $650 million in synergies by fiscal 2028 (with $260 million in fiscal 2026), primarily through cost reduction, procurement optimization, and operational efficiencies, which should support sustained EPS and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the numbers and financial levers fueling analyst confidence in this higher valuation? The narrative’s eye-popping fair value hinges on game-changing improvements in profit margins and dramatic earnings growth projections. Just what bold projections justify such a sizable premium? Dive in to see how this valuation is built on a future vision, as well as what assumptions need to play out.

Result: Fair Value of $10.41 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weak consumer demand and uncertainty around key portfolio divestitures could quickly challenge the case for a sustained earnings rebound at Amcor.

Find out about the key risks to this Amcor narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Tell a Different Story

While the fair value narrative leans optimistic, the market’s favored price-to-earnings ratio offers a more cautious outlook. Amcor trades at 33.7 times earnings, which is well above its packaging industry peers at 18.5 times and the fair ratio at 24.8 times. This points to meaningful valuation risk if investor sentiment shifts.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Amcor Narrative

If you want to challenge the prevailing outlook or dig deeper into the numbers, you can craft your own perspective on Amcor in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Amcor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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