Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of USAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

USAP ($44.05) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($157.72)

Is USAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of USAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: USAP ($44.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($157.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: USAP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for USAP?

Key metric: As USAP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for USAP. This is calculated by dividing USAP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is USAP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.4x
Earnings	US$26.65m
Market Cap	US$412.06m

USAP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does USAP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for USAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	20.7x
METC Ramaco Resources	19x	36.9%	US$642.4m
HAYN Haynes International	20.8x	24.6%	US$774.3m
ZEUS Olympic Steel	17x	22.4%	US$436.1m
MTUS Metallus	25.9x	52.0%	US$623.8m
USAP Universal Stainless & Alloy Products	15.4x	n/a	US$412.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: USAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does USAP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold	2.1x	n/a	US$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations	0.6x	n/a	US$5.46m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials	0.9x	n/a	US$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals	0.5x	n/a	US$852.33k

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: USAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is USAP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

USAP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate USAP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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