The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that TriMas Corporation (NASDAQ:TRS) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for TriMas
How Much Debt Does TriMas Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 TriMas had US$420.3m of debt, an increase on US$401.7m, over one year. However, it also had US$26.9m in cash, and so its net debt is US$393.3m.
How Strong Is TriMas' Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that TriMas had liabilities of US$154.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$531.1m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$26.9m as well as receivables valued at US$163.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$494.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since TriMas has a market capitalization of US$1.09b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
TriMas has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.9 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even worse, TriMas saw its EBIT tank 26% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if TriMas can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, TriMas recorded free cash flow of 44% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Mulling over TriMas's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that TriMas's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that TriMas is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:TRS
TriMas
Engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of products for consumer products, aerospace, and industrial markets worldwide.
Moderate growth potential with questionable track record.