These 4 Measures Indicate That Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ:KALU) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Kaiser Aluminum

How Much Debt Does Kaiser Aluminum Carry?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kaiser Aluminum had US$1.05b in debt in June 2023; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

How Healthy Is Kaiser Aluminum's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kaiser Aluminum had liabilities of US$354.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.27b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$19.8m and US$445.2m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.16b.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$1.20b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 1.2 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.5 hit our confidence in Kaiser Aluminum like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Kaiser Aluminum saw its EBIT tank 36% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kaiser Aluminum's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Kaiser Aluminum burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both Kaiser Aluminum's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its net debt to EBITDA also fails to instill confidence. We think the chances that Kaiser Aluminum has too much debt a very significant. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example Kaiser Aluminum has 4 warning signs (and 2 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.