Innospec Inc.'s (NASDAQ:IOSP) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Innospec Inc.'s (NASDAQ:IOSP) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.3x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been pleasing for Innospec as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Is There Enough Growth For Innospec?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Innospec's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 4.3%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 379% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 13% as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 12% growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that Innospec's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Innospec's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Innospec that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Innospec, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.