Stock Analysis

Is AgroFresh Solutions (NASDAQ:AGFS) Using Too Much Debt?

NasdaqGS:AGFS
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that AgroFresh Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGFS) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

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When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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What Is AgroFresh Solutions's Debt?

As you can see below, AgroFresh Solutions had US$258.6m of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have US$51.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$207.0m.

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NasdaqGS:AGFS Debt to Equity History October 14th 2022

How Strong Is AgroFresh Solutions' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that AgroFresh Solutions had liabilities of US$45.2m due within a year, and liabilities of US$292.1m falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$51.5m and US$50.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$235.7m.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$86.9m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, AgroFresh Solutions would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While AgroFresh Solutions's debt to EBITDA ratio (3.4) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 0.72, suggesting high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. On the other hand, AgroFresh Solutions grew its EBIT by 22% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if AgroFresh Solutions can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, AgroFresh Solutions actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.

Our View

AgroFresh Solutions's level of total liabilities and interest cover definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow with ease. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that AgroFresh Solutions is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for AgroFresh Solutions that you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.