Oscar Health (OSCR): Assessing Valuation After New Tech-Driven Plans and Q3 Earnings Reveal

Oscar Health (OSCR) made headlines with the launch of tech-powered health plans for Southern Florida, including the first menopause-focused option and new AI-driven features. These initiatives arrived at the same time as a quarterly report with strong revenue gains but wider net losses.

See our latest analysis for Oscar Health.

Oscar Health’s new product launches and steady guidance come after a tough stretch for the stock. While the latest news caught attention, the 1-month share price return sits at -30.2%, reflecting concerns about profitability despite solid revenue growth. Long-term investors, however, have seen a dramatic 387% total return over three years, even as recent momentum has cooled.

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But after strong product launches and rising revenues, with shares still well below recent highs, is Oscar Health currently undervalued or is the market already factoring in expectations for future growth and profitability?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.8% Overvalued

Despite Oscar Health's fair value being set at $12.38 per share, its last closing price was $14.08, signaling that the market remains more optimistic than analysts' expectations reflected in the narrative. The current price sits above both the fair value and the updated average analyst target, creating a key tension for investors.

Recent analyst coverage of Oscar Health reflects a mix of cautious optimism along with some lingering concerns about the company's near-term execution and long-term recovery prospects. The Street's overall stance remains largely neutral, highlighting both upside and downside factors that could influence valuation moving forward.

Read the complete narrative.

Can Oscar Health achieve the bold targets embedded in this valuation? This narrative hints at big shifts in revenue, margins, and future profitability—numbers that could turn the valuation debate upside down. Discover the full financial projections and the reasoning behind this stark disconnect between price and fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $12.38 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, robust digital adoption or sharp execution on $60 million in cost cuts could swiftly improve margins and challenge the current overvaluation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Oscar Health narrative.

Another View: Peer and Industry Multiples Say the Stock Looks Cheap

Taking a different approach, let's look at how Oscar Health stacks up on its price-to-sales metric. It trades at just 0.3x, compared to 0.6x for its peers and an even higher 1.1x for the broader US Insurance industry. The fair ratio, which the market could move toward, sits at 0.7x. This significant gap suggests room for upside if sentiment or results shift, but does it fully offset the profit risks investors still face?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

If you want to challenge these numbers or prefer hands-on analysis, you can easily build a personalized view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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