Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:HRTG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$693.7m

Heritage Insurance Holdings Valuation

Is HRTG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HRTG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$38.48
Fair Value
40.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
2
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HRTG ($22.94) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HRTG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HRTG?

Key metric: As HRTG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HRTG. This is calculated by dividing HRTG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HRTG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.7x
EarningsUS$77.79m
Market CapUS$693.71m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HRTG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HRTG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
UFCS United Fire Group
10.6x4.68%US$707.0m
DGIC.A Donegal Group
10.2x-1.52%US$723.3m
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings
11.1x12.63%US$747.0m
TIPT Tiptree
16.4xn/aUS$815.2m
HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings
8.7x21.63%US$693.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HRTG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HRTG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2.2xn/aUS$126.19m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
HRTG 8.7xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies19PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HRTG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (14.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HRTG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HRTG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.7x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HRTG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HRTG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$22.94
US$29.00
+26.42%
3.45%US$30.00US$28.00n/a2
May ’26US$18.85
US$19.50
+3.45%
2.56%US$20.00US$19.00n/a2
Apr ’26US$15.13
US$19.50
+28.88%
2.56%US$20.00US$19.00n/a2
Mar ’26US$11.75
US$16.00
+36.17%
6.25%US$17.00US$15.00n/a2
Feb ’26US$11.01
US$16.00
+45.32%
6.25%US$17.00US$15.00n/a2
Jan ’26US$12.10
US$16.00
+32.23%
6.25%US$17.00US$15.00n/a2
Dec ’25US$12.43
US$16.00
+28.72%
6.25%US$17.00US$15.00n/a2
Nov ’25US$10.21
US$12.50
+22.43%
4.00%US$13.00US$12.00n/a2
Oct ’25US$11.78
US$12.50
+6.11%
4.00%US$13.00US$12.00n/a2
Sep ’25US$16.13
US$12.50
-22.50%
4.00%US$13.00US$12.00n/a2
Aug ’25US$7.67
US$10.00
+30.38%
10.00%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Jul ’25US$6.78
US$10.00
+47.49%
10.00%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$8.50
US$10.00
+17.65%
10.00%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
May ’25US$10.29
US$10.00
-2.82%
10.00%US$11.00US$9.00US$18.852
Apr ’25US$10.99
US$10.00
-9.01%
10.00%US$11.00US$9.00US$15.132
Mar ’25US$7.14
US$7.67
+7.38%
12.30%US$9.00US$7.00US$11.753
Feb ’25US$6.08
US$7.67
+26.10%
12.30%US$9.00US$7.00US$11.013
Jan ’25US$6.52
US$7.33
+12.47%
17.01%US$9.00US$6.00US$12.103
Dec ’24US$8.88
US$7.33
-17.42%
17.01%US$9.00US$6.00US$12.433
Nov ’24US$6.17
US$6.23
+1.03%
8.92%US$7.00US$5.70US$10.213
Oct ’24US$6.49
US$6.08
-6.27%
11.78%US$7.00US$5.25US$11.783
Sep ’24US$5.30
US$6.08
+14.78%
11.78%US$7.00US$5.25US$16.133
Aug ’24US$4.63
US$4.72
+1.87%
8.50%US$5.00US$4.15US$7.673
Jul ’24US$3.85
US$4.75
+23.38%
7.44%US$5.00US$4.25US$6.783
Jun ’24US$4.51
US$4.75
+5.32%
7.44%US$5.00US$4.25US$8.503
May ’24US$3.47
US$3.83
+10.47%
22.17%US$5.00US$3.00US$10.293
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 2 Analysts
US$29.00
Fair Value
20.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
2
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/22 04:38
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/22 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. is covered by 5 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew CarlettiCitizens JMP Securities, LLC
Karol ChmielCitizens JMP Securities, LLC
Jon Paul NewsomePiper Sandler Companies