Is Chubb’s Recent North American Expansion a Signal for Investors in 2025?

• Thinking about whether Chubb is a smart buy right now? You are not alone, especially if you are wondering if its current price offers real value or just the buzz of recent momentum.
• Chubb’s stock has quietly climbed by 5.8% in the past month and has delivered an impressive 110.5% return over the last five years, which hints at staying power and possibly shifting views on its future risk and potential.
• The company has recently featured in the news for expanding its North American operations, with strategic partnerships in specialty insurance lines and technology upgrades that catch the eye of long-term investors. These initiatives have made analysts and industry pundits take a second look at the stock’s growth story and resilience.
• On the valuation side, Chubb scores a 4 out of 6 by our checks. This signals it is undervalued on most, but not all, metrics. Next, we will look into the details of how this score is calculated and why there may be an even better way to assess Chubb’s true value by the end of the article.

Chubb delivered 4.0% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Insurance industry.

Approach 1: Chubb Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns valuation model estimates a company's worth by measuring the returns it consistently generates above its cost of equity. In Chubb’s case, this approach focuses on its ability to earn more on its invested capital than what it costs to raise funds, indicating robust long-term value creation.

Several key figures stand out for Chubb. Book value per share is $182.22. The stable expected earnings per share are $28.51, as projected by 14 analysts using future Return on Equity estimates. The company’s cost of equity is $13.90 per share. This means that every year, Chubb is generating an excess return of $14.61 per share over and above its cost of capital. Chubb’s average return on equity is a strong 13.6 percent, and the stable book value forecast stands at $209.68 per share based on analyst consensus.

According to this model, the intrinsic fair value estimate for Chubb is significantly higher than its current trading price. The implied discount is 53.7 percent, indicating the stock is trading well below its intrinsic value and may offer a compelling opportunity for value investors seeking consistent returns from a high-quality insurer.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Chubb is undervalued by 53.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 926 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Chubb.

Approach 2: Chubb Price vs Earnings

The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation multiple and is particularly suitable for analyzing profitable companies like Chubb. This metric gives investors a quick way to evaluate how much they are paying for each dollar of a company’s earnings, providing a direct link to current profitability.

The “normal” or fair PE ratio for a company reflects expectations for its future growth as well as the perceived risks. When a business has solid growth prospects, strong profitability, or lower risk, investors may be willing to pay a higher multiple. On the other hand, greater uncertainties or slow growth typically result in a lower PE ratio being justified.

Chubb currently trades at a PE of 12.1x. This is above its peer average of 10.4x but remains below the broader insurance industry average of 13.2x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” for Chubb is 13.5x, which incorporates factors such as Chubb’s expected earnings trajectory, profit margins, risk profile, market cap, and unique characteristics in the insurance sector.

Using the Fair Ratio offers a more comprehensive view than peer or industry comparisons alone because it includes all the context that those simple benchmarks may miss. It ensures that differences in growth, profitability, and risk relative to the market are properly taken into account.

With Chubb’s current PE just below the Fair Ratio, the stock appears slightly undervalued on this basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1433 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Chubb Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, structured way of putting your story about a company—including your assumptions for fair value, future revenue, earnings, and profit margins—right alongside the hard numbers.

Rather than relying only on ratios or consensus, Narratives connect the company’s big picture (such as your outlook on Chubb’s expansion, technology investments, or risk management) to a personal forecast that leads directly to your own fair value estimate. You can easily create and share your Chubb Narrative on the Simply Wall St Community page, a platform millions of investors use to test ideas and sense-check assumptions in real time.

Narratives don’t just help you see where price and fair value match. They update automatically as news, earnings, or forecasts change, so you can adjust your view and act with confidence. For Chubb, some investors have created bullish Narratives with a fair value of $340, based on aggressive growth and margin expansion. The most cautious view puts fair value closer to $267, reflecting a more conservative outlook on future risks.

For Chubb, however, we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Chubb Narratives:

• 🐂 Chubb Bull Case

  Fair Value: $307.73

  Current price is 3.2% below fair value

  Expected Revenue Growth: -4.7%

  • Analysts forecast resilient profit margins and flexibility in shareholder returns, supported by digital expansion, disciplined underwriting, and continued buybacks.
  • Key risks include competition-driven margin pressures, litigation and catastrophe exposures, regulatory headwinds, and macro volatility in emerging markets.
  • The analyst consensus targets a price moderately above the current share price, suggesting Chubb is fairly valued if near-term forecasts hold.
• 🐻 Chubb Bear Case

  Fair Value: $247.08

  Current price is 20.6% above fair value

  Expected Revenue Growth: 2.6%

  • Emphasizes Chubb’s strong diversification, leading underwriting capabilities, and global presence, but warns of stretched valuations after recent performance.
  • Notes that competition, capital intensity, and regulatory barriers keep new entrants at bay, though technological disruption remains a persistent risk.
  • Suggests that, based on historic growth rates and adjusted for industry risk, the buy price should be lower, cautioning that Chubb may be materially overvalued at current levels.

Do you think there's more to the story for Chubb? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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