Aon plc

NYSE:AON Stock Report

Market Cap: US$71.6b

Aon Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Aon is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 2.7% and 4.7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 39% in 3 years.

Key information

2.7%

Earnings growth rate

5.60%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth2.3%
Revenue growth rate4.7%
Future return on equity38.99%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated08 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 05

AON: AI Exposed Services And Cost Efficiencies Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have made a small downward adjustment to Aon’s fair value estimate to about $385, reflecting slightly lower revenue growth assumptions and a more conservative average of recent price target moves, even though some firms highlight stronger organic growth potential and modestly higher profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Aon reflects a split view, with some analysts leaning more optimistic on long term execution and others becoming more cautious on the sector setup and growth outlook for brokers versus carriers.
Seeking Alpha • Jun 03

Aon: Quality Business, But Valuation Leaves Little Margin Of Safety

Summary Aon plc demonstrates operational stability and high recurring revenues, but the current valuation fully reflects moderate growth prospects. Forward P/E of 20.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 14x indicate AON is not undervalued, with limited upside unless growth accelerates. High debt from the $13.4B NFP acquisition and rising administrative costs constrain profitability and restrict shareholder returns. While AON's business model is resilient, slow growth and integration risks suggest limited short-term share price appreciation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 06

AON: Margin Durability In AI Exposed Services Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Aon slightly lower, with recent cuts of $3 to $16 from several firms, partly offset by a $33 increase from one firm, as they factor in updated views on revenue growth, margins, and sector headwinds such as weaker pricing and AI related pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Aon highlights a split view, with most firms trimming price targets and one firm lifting its target, as analysts reassess how revenue growth, margins, and sector headwinds feed into valuation.
Narrative Update • Apr 21

AON: Margin Durability In AI Exposed Insurance Services Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed Aon's fair value estimate by about $6 to $389.95. This reflects a series of reduced price targets and slightly more cautious assumptions on growth, margins, and future P/E across recent research updates.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

AON: Margin Durability And AI Data Expansion Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lowered the blended price target for Aon to reflect softer revenue growth expectations, a modestly lower fair value estimate of around $396, and sector commentary pointing to weaker pricing and AI headwinds. These factors are partly offset by steady margin assumptions and a slightly lower future P/E of about 24.4x.
Narrative Update • Mar 23

AON: Margin Durability And Health Insights Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have recently adjusted their Aon price targets in a tight range, with moves such as Morgan Stanley trimming its target to $390, others lifting targets by $5 to $19, and some firms cutting by up to $57. These changes reflect mixed views around softening P&C pricing, AI related cost headwinds, and the importance of differentiated underwriting and margin durability.
Narrative Update • Mar 09

AON: Margin Durability And Health Data Findings Will Support Future Upside

The updated Aon narrative reflects a small trim in the analyst price target to about $397 from $398, as analysts factor in slightly softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions while still emphasizing the importance of differentiated underwriting and margin durability in a weaker pricing backdrop. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Aon shows a mixed but fairly balanced view, with several firms adjusting price targets both higher and lower while keeping a close eye on growth, pricing trends, and margin resilience.
Narrative Update • Feb 22

AON: Health Data Findings And Margin Resilience Will Drive Future Upside

The updated analyst price target for Aon edges up to $398.00, as analysts factor in slightly higher long term valuation assumptions. These are supported by recent target revisions across firms that highlight mixed views on sector pricing, competition, and margin trends.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

AON: Health Data Insights And Margin Resilience Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price targets on Aon higher, reflected in a modest increase in our fair value estimate to about US$397 per share. They cite updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, steadier profit margins and a lower future P/E multiple, even as recent research shows a mix of target raises and trims across the Street.
Narrative Update • Jan 23

AON: Capital Markets And Data Center Projects Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Aon by a few dollars, reflecting slightly lower fair value estimates and modestly softer assumptions for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E as they factor in softening P&C pricing and potential growth headwinds for brokers. Analyst Commentary Street research on Aon is mixed, with some focusing on upside from execution and capital markets exposure, while others highlight pressure from softer property and casualty pricing and slower broker growth assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

AON: Capital Markets And Data Center Projects Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have made a small adjustment to Aon’s fair value estimate to about $397, reflecting mixed price target moves across the Street and updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Aon is split, with some firms lifting their targets or ratings and others trimming them, which lines up with the modest change in the blended fair value estimate to about $397.
Narrative Update • Dec 17

AON: AI Risk Solutions Will Drive Future Upside In Insurance Services

The analyst price target for Aon has been trimmed modestly to about $399 from roughly $401, as analysts balance slightly higher long term earnings estimates and solid Q3 execution against tempered sector expectations and a mixed risk/reward backdrop. Analyst Commentary Street research reflects a sharply divided view on Aon, with some bullish analysts highlighting solid execution and emerging growth drivers, while bearish analysts emphasize limited upside to current valuations and lingering sector headwinds.
Narrative Update • Dec 03

AON: Data Center And AI Risk Demand Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Aon slightly, to about $400.50 from roughly $402.67. Modestly higher earnings expectations and solid Q3 execution are balanced against a more cautious sector outlook and limited perceived upside to current price targets.
Narrative Update • Nov 18

AON: Margin Expansion And Data Center Projects Will Drive Shares Higher

Aon's analyst price target saw a modest decline of approximately $5 to $402, as analysts cite muted upside potential following Q3 results, despite incremental improvements to earnings outlook and continued positive margin trends. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes show a diverse range of opinions on Aon's future following its third-quarter performance.
Narrative Update • Nov 03

AON: Future Revenue Upside Will Be Driven By Core Insurance Focus

Aon's analyst price target has decreased modestly to $407.78 from $414.20, as analysts cite a slightly softer outlook on revenue growth and margin forecasts, even though there have been positive recent earnings and sector developments. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Aon's outlook and valuation.
Narrative Update • Sep 12

Risk Analyzers And Business Services Expansion Will Drive Operational Efficiency

Analysts have raised Aon's price target slightly to $414.20, citing solid organic growth driven by talent investments, better-than-expected Q2 performance, and relative resilience to P&C market softness, though some caution remains due to high valuation and tight earnings expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts expect Aon's investments in talent, particularly in construction, energy, and health, to drive increased organic growth, with productivity gains materializing in late 2025 and beyond.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 26

Aon: New Leadership Onboard - Strong Buy

Summary Aon’s stock has surged 23% since July 2024, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by net new business growth and strong retention rates. Leadership changes, particularly Greg Case’s expanded role, are expected to enhance Aon’s execution of its 3x3 Plan and drive further growth. Aon projects 6% organic revenue growth and double-digit free cash flow growth for FY25, supported by market dynamics and strategic M&A. Despite high debt from the NFP acquisition, Aon’s steady revenue growth and expanding margins justify a 'Strong Buy' rating with a fair value of $435 per share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 07

Aon plc: Better Position Than Before, But Some Distance Before A 'Buy'

Summary Aon plc remains a "Hold" due to its expensive valuation, despite strong 3Q24 results and merger synergies with NFP. The company's fundamentals are solid, with 7% organic revenue growth and margin expansion, but low dividends make it reliant on capital appreciation. AON's debt is manageable, with plans to delever its balance sheet, but current valuation limits potential returns to sub-12% annually. AON is a superb company, but at $355/share, it remains overvalued; a more attractive entry point is around $300/share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 14

Aon plc: Mostly A Correct Assessment, Looking To 2024-2026

Summary Aon plc remains a “HOLD” due to its overvaluation at $355/share, despite solid fundamentals and a forecasted 8% annual growth. The company's recent M&A with NFP and ongoing restructuring plan are expected to drive significant revenue and cost synergies. Aon's valuation at 23.6x P/E is above its historical average, limiting its potential returns despite its strong market position and consistent performance. While Aon is fundamentally strong and well-run, its low dividend yield and high valuation make it less attractive compared to other insurance businesses. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:AON - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202820,2384,1525,0015,1759
12/31/202719,1633,8554,4484,77016
12/31/202618,0173,3273,8574,15116
3/31/202617,4863,9423,4973,771N/A
12/31/202517,1813,6953,2183,481N/A
9/30/202517,0282,7183,0403,284N/A
6/30/202516,7522,6032,9123,149N/A
3/31/202516,3572,5482,6402,866N/A
12/31/202415,6982,6542,8173,035N/A
9/30/202414,9262,4362,8843,096N/A
6/30/202414,1582,5492,9183,126N/A
3/31/202413,5752,5853,0773,301N/A
12/31/202313,3762,5643,1833,435N/A
9/30/202313,1312,7232,9433,216N/A
6/30/202312,8742,6752,9463,219N/A
3/31/202312,6802,6162,9503,199N/A
12/31/202212,4792,5893,0233,219N/A
9/30/202212,4292,7952,9473,108N/A
6/30/202212,4351,4871,8331,968N/A
3/31/202212,3381,3651,9532,084N/A
12/31/202112,1931,2552,0452,182N/A
9/30/202112,0789161,8872,011N/A
6/30/202111,7612,0912,7872,909N/A
3/31/202111,3722,1102,8953,006N/A
12/31/202011,0661,9692,6422,783N/A
9/30/202010,9861,8192,5182,695N/A
6/30/202010,9801,7672,4852,693N/A
3/31/202011,0891,6461,8722,099N/A
12/31/201911,0131,532N/A1,835N/A
9/30/201910,8981,435N/A1,874N/A
6/30/201910,8681,361N/A1,634N/A
3/31/201910,8231,131N/A1,620N/A
12/31/201810,7701,060N/A1,686N/A
9/30/201810,909794N/A1,356N/A
6/30/201810,900834N/A647N/A
3/31/201810,707735N/A634N/A
12/31/20179,998398N/A734N/A
9/30/20179,739765N/A1,204N/A
6/30/20179,600853N/A2,062N/A
3/31/20179,5141,170N/A2,293N/A
12/31/20169,4091,219N/A2,326N/A
9/30/201610,0421,426N/A2,189N/A
6/30/201610,5771,444N/A2,195N/A
3/31/201611,0951,357N/A1,984N/A
12/31/20159,4801,216N/A2,009N/A
9/30/201511,6701,260N/A2,224N/A
6/30/201511,8071,274N/A2,057N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AON's forecast earnings growth (2.7% per year) is below the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: AON's earnings (2.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AON's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AON's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AON's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AON's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (39%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/12 08:19
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/12 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aon plc is covered by 29 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Taylor ScottBarclays
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Joshua ShankerBofA Global Research