Allstate (ALL) Is Up 5.6% After Strong Earnings and $800 Million Buyback Completion – Has the Bull Case Changed?

• The Allstate Corporation recently reported its third-quarter and nine-month 2025 results, posting strong year-over-year growth in revenue and net income, and also announced the completion of a substantial share repurchase program totaling over US$800 million.
• These developments highlight the company’s ability to generate robust earnings while actively returning capital to shareholders through buybacks.
• With the company delivering higher earnings and completing its repurchase program, we’ll explore how this impacts Allstate’s investment narrative and outlook.

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Allstate Investment Narrative Recap

Owning Allstate often comes down to believing in its ability to maintain profitable growth in personal auto and property insurance, leveraging technology and scale in a competitive market. The company’s strong Q3 results and completion of a US$805 million buyback reinforce confidence around earnings momentum, but do not materially change the immediate catalyst of expanding digital platforms for policy growth or ease concerns tied to risks from elevated climate losses and regulatory constraints.

Among recent announcements, Allstate’s update on catastrophe losses remains highly relevant, as total Q3 catastrophe claims reached US$558 million. Even though these losses remain significant, the announcement underscores ongoing earnings volatility as a risk, especially as the company invests in underwriting innovation to support top-line growth.

However, investors should also be aware that despite robust earnings, exposure to weather-driven catastrophe losses continues to weigh on Allstate’s long-term results and...

Read the full narrative on Allstate (it's free!)

Allstate's projections estimate $76.3 billion in revenue and $4.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This scenario requires a 4.9% annual revenue growth rate but reflects a $1.4 billion decrease in earnings from the current $5.7 billion level.

Uncover how Allstate's forecasts yield a $233.45 fair value, a 15% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community show a wide span from US$188 to over US$650 per share. While opinions differ greatly, recent results sharpen attention on how catastrophe risks may still drive future performance swings, see how others frame the debate.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Allstate - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Allstate Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Allstate research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Allstate research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Allstate's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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