Assurant (AIZ): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings Beat and Dividend Raise

Assurant (AIZ) announced an increased quarterly dividend of $0.88 per share, following a strong third quarter. The company’s revenue climbed nearly 9% and adjusted EPS surged 91% from the previous year. Investors are taking notice.

See our latest analysis for Assurant.

Assurant’s upbeat quarter seems to have left a mark on its stock, with a 7.7% share price return over the past month and steady momentum building through the year. While this performance has lifted its standing among peers, the 3-year total shareholder return of 89% really sets it apart for longer-term investors.

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With solid growth numbers and analysts still seeing upside to the price target, the question now is whether Assurant shares remain undervalued, or if the market has already priced in all that future momentum.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.1% Undervalued

With Assurant’s last close of $228.17 sitting well below the popular narrative’s fair value estimate of $253.67, the latest valuation points to clear upside from here. A higher price target reflects a shift in analyst models, and the drivers behind this view go beyond short-term market moves.

“Assurant is capitalizing on the proliferation of connected devices and increasing device protection needs, demonstrated by 2.4 million net new device protection subscribers, international acquisitions expanding repair capabilities, and strong new partnerships. This positions the company for sustained revenue growth and improved recurring earnings in its Lifestyle segment.”

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint powering this bullish price target? The narrative hinges on ambitious assumptions for revenue, profit margins, and an attractive future multiple. Find out which surprising forecasts justify the gap between today’s price and that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $253.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent regulatory scrutiny or fresh digital competition could quickly change the outlook. This could challenge Assurant's growth story in the months ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Assurant narrative.

Another View: What Do the Numbers Say?

Looking from a different angle, our DCF model suggests Assurant shares might be trading far below intrinsic value, with a fair value closer to $475. This method relies on projected cash flows rather than peer comparisons and highlights major upside if those forecasts play out. Which approach gives you more confidence?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Assurant Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, crafting your own perspective is quick and easy. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Assurant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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