The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

NasdaqGS:BWIN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.2b

Baldwin Insurance Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Baldwin Insurance Group is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 76.9% and 15.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 116.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 43.4% in 3 years.

Key information

76.9%

Earnings growth rate

116.54%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth1.9%
Revenue growth rate15.8%
Future return on equity43.38%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated14 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

BWIN: Share Repurchases And Embedded Distribution Synergies Will Shape 2026 Earnings Power

Analyst price targets for Baldwin Insurance Group have been trimmed by $2 to $4 in recent research, as analysts factor in concerns related to AI, near-term organic growth headwinds, and updated views on valuation and longer-term growth potential. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Baldwin Insurance Group shows a mix of caution around AI related risks and near term organic growth, alongside pockets of clear optimism on valuation, execution and the medium term growth profile.

BWIN: Future Returns Will Depend On AI Infrastructure Supporting Premium Resilience

Narrative Update Overview The analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group has been reduced by about $2.17 to $29.33. Analysts attribute the change to lower fair value estimates and updated margin and P/E assumptions following a series of recent target cuts from major firms.

BWIN: Share Repurchases And CAC Merger Synergies Will Drive 2026 Earnings Power

Narrative Update on Baldwin Insurance Group Analyst price targets for Baldwin Insurance Group are now clustering around $40, with recent research pointing to current valuation, the expected 2026 growth profile, and merger driven revenue synergies as key reasons for maintaining a constructive view, despite prior target cuts tied to AI related concerns and softer near term organic growth. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are leaning into a constructive view on Baldwin Insurance Group, even as some targets have been reset to reflect sector wide AI concerns and softer near term organic growth.

BWIN: Share Repurchases And CAC Merger Synergies Will Support 2026 Earnings Profile

Narrative Update: Analyst Price Target Reset for Baldwin Insurance Group The updated analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group moves from an implied fair value of $47.00 to $40.00. This reflects recent Street research that combines lower targets from some firms with continued positive ratings and an upgraded view on valuation and the 2026 growth profile.

BWIN: 2026 Pricing And Margin Trends Will Shape Earnings Quality

Narrative Update: Baldwin Insurance Group The analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group has been revised to $21 from $26, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, margins, and long term P/E assumptions as analysts weigh recent rating changes and commentary around valuation and the company’s 2026 growth profile. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Baldwin Insurance Group presents a mixed picture, with some firms highlighting upside tied to the company’s 2026 growth profile and others trimming expectations as they reassess revenue and margin trajectories.

Baldwin Insurance: AI Fears Are Exaggerated (Upgrade)

Feb 27

BWIN: Future Returns Will Rely On AI Infrastructure Supporting Premium Resilience

Narrative Update on Baldwin Insurance Group Analysts have trimmed their consolidated price target for Baldwin Insurance Group from $33.38 to $31.50, reflecting a mix of recent target cuts and raises as they factor in sector wide AI concerns, expectations for slower organic growth and margin trends, as well as ongoing support from broader insurance and AI infrastructure demand. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Baldwin Insurance Group highlights a split view, with some analysts focusing on long term growth potential and others flagging valuation reset and execution risks tied to sector wide AI concerns.

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 32%

Feb 10
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Might Not Be As Mispriced As It Looks After Plunging 32%

BWIN: Future Returns Will Rely On Execution In Organic Growth And Margins

Narrative Update on Baldwin Insurance Group The analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group has shifted modestly higher to $27. Analysts point to updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions as key inputs behind the change.

BWIN: Future Earnings Quality Will Hinge On Pricing And Margin Stability

Analysts have lifted their price target on Baldwin Insurance Group to about $27 from roughly $25, citing a refreshed view on revenue growth potential, profit margin expectations, and future P/E assumptions in light of the sector’s current focus on pricing, loss trends, reserves, and broker margins. Analyst Commentary Recent research has centered on how Baldwin Insurance Group is positioned across key insurance themes, including pricing, loss trends, reserves, and broker margins.

BWIN: Calm Catastrophe Season Will Support Stronger Earnings Profile Ahead

Narrative Update: Baldwin Insurance Group Analysts have nudged their price target on Baldwin Insurance Group up to US$48 from US$47, citing a calm Q3 catastrophe season and limited earnings impact from earlier macro uncertainties as key supports for their updated view. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are framing the latest price target move as a reflection of steadier fundamentals and a cleaner near term risk backdrop for Baldwin Insurance Group.

BWIN: Future Performance Will Benefit From Calm Catastrophe Season And Earnings Resilience

Narrative Update on Baldwin Insurance Group The analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group has edged up from $47 to $48 as analysts cite a calmer catastrophe season and resilient earnings across U.S. insurance peers to support slightly higher valuation assumptions, despite mixed target revisions on the Street. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided on Baldwin Insurance Group, with some highlighting improving fundamental and macro backdrops, while others are dialing back expectations to reflect more tempered growth and valuation assumptions.

BWIN: Future Performance Will Benefit From Calm Catastrophe Season

Analysts have modestly revised their price target on Baldwin Insurance Group, with the blended target edging higher as updated models incorporate a calmer than expected catastrophe season and resilient earnings, even as some firms trim estimates to reflect more conservative profitability and valuation assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mixed but generally constructive stance on Baldwin Insurance Group, with modestly higher price targets from some firms offset by more conservative revisions from others.

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Soars 26% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

Nov 29
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Soars 26% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

BWIN: Future Performance Will Benefit From Calm Weather And Resilient Earnings

Analysts have revised Baldwin Insurance Group's fair value estimate down to $33.63 from $36.13. They cite evolving views on sector outlook and updated financial forecasts as reasons for the adjustment.

BWIN: Future Performance Will Benefit From Stable Earnings And Calm Quarter

Baldwin Insurance Group’s analyst price target has been lowered from $38 to $36.13. Analysts cite recent changes in sector outlook and stable earnings in a calm quarter as key factors behind the adjustment.

Analyst Commentary Reflects Mixed Outlook and Modest Price Target Cut for Baldwin Insurance Group

The analyst price target for Baldwin Insurance Group has shifted down modestly, decreasing from $39.75 to $38.00 per share. This adjustment comes as analysts react to moderated revenue growth, profit margin compression, and recent industry trends.

Embedded Insurance And Medicare Demand Will Unlock Opportunities

Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Baldwin Insurance Group from $41.38 to $39.75, citing slower expected revenue growth, decreasing profit margins, and recent negative sector trends as reflected in updated price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent street research offers a mixed outlook for Baldwin Insurance Group, reflecting both optimism and concern regarding the company’s future performance and valuation trajectory.

Embedded Insurance And Medicare Demand Will Unlock Opportunities

The downward revision in Baldwin Insurance Group's price target is primarily driven by a sharp decline in its future P/E ratio and an increased discount rate, resulting in a lower consensus fair value of $44.75. What's in the News The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.

With The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For

Jun 26
With The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For
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US Business Formation And Tech Investment Will Redefine Insurance

Rapid growth in commercial insurance demand and robust client retention drive strong recurring revenue, margin expansion, and increased capital flexibility.

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Not Flying Under The Radar

Feb 20
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) Not Flying Under The Radar

Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BWIN) P/S

Oct 11
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BWIN) P/S

Revenues Tell The Story For The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) As Its Stock Soars 26%

May 26
Revenues Tell The Story For The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:BWIN) As Its Stock Soars 26%

BRP Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BRP) 33% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors

Mar 05
BRP Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BRP) 33% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:BWIN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20282,456111874043
12/31/20272,22121233068
12/31/20262,011-481332068
12/31/20251,505-34-69-29N/A
9/30/20251,487-28-339N/A
6/30/20251,461-18-430N/A
3/31/20251,422-32-735N/A
12/31/20241,389-251051N/A
9/30/20241,344-393976N/A
6/30/20241,311-48-231N/A
3/31/20241,268-543562N/A
12/31/20231,219-90-230N/A
9/30/20231,180-1041437N/A
6/30/20231,133-1111438N/A
3/31/20231,068-79-41-13N/A
12/31/2022981-42-28-2N/A
9/30/2022894-16-26-4N/A
6/30/2022770-4-31-14N/A
3/31/2022657-232333N/A
12/31/2021567-313240N/A
9/30/2021478-182633N/A
6/30/2021408-83543N/A
3/31/2021340-22735N/A
12/31/2020241-162937N/A
9/30/2020208-142328N/A
6/30/2020180-114247N/A
3/31/2020162-71012N/A
12/31/2019138-91012N/A
9/30/2019122-1N/A16N/A
6/30/2019102-2N/A13N/A
3/31/201989-1N/A13N/A
12/31/201880-1N/A12N/A
12/31/2017482N/A8N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BWIN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: BWIN is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: BWIN is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BWIN's revenue (15.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BWIN's revenue (15.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BWIN's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (43.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/03 14:58
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Charles LedererBMO Capital Markets Equity Research