AMERISAFE, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AMSF Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.1b

AMERISAFE Valuation

Is AMSF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMSF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AMSF ($58.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($71.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMSF is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMSF?

Key metric: As AMSF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AMSF. This is calculated by dividing AMSF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AMSF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.1x
EarningsUS$61.42m
Market CapUS$1.11b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AMSF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AMSF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.6x
BOW Bowhead Specialty Holdings
37.2x36.5%US$1.1b
PRA ProAssurance
20.1x3.0%US$863.5m
IGIC International General Insurance Holdings
8.2x1.7%US$1.1b
SAFT Safety Insurance Group
16.9xn/aUS$1.3b
AMSF AMERISAFE
18.1x-22.4%US$1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AMSF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the peer average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AMSF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
1.9xn/aUS$85.49m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.68m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
AMSF 18.1xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AMSF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMSF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMSF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.1x
Fair PE Ratio8.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AMSF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMSF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$58.28
US$55.67
-4.5%
12.6%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$53.78
US$55.67
+3.5%
12.6%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$49.45
US$53.67
+8.5%
14.9%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$50.12
US$53.67
+7.1%
14.9%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$47.00
US$53.67
+14.2%
14.9%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$43.82
US$56.00
+27.8%
16.1%US$65.00US$47.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$43.83
US$56.00
+27.8%
16.1%US$65.00US$47.00n/a2
May ’25US$46.66
US$56.00
+20.0%
16.1%US$65.00US$47.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$49.04
US$54.00
+10.1%
14.6%US$65.00US$47.00n/a3
Mar ’25US$52.19
US$54.00
+3.5%
14.6%US$65.00US$47.00n/a3
Feb ’25US$49.44
US$52.33
+5.9%
18.2%US$65.00US$42.00n/a3
Jan ’25US$46.78
US$52.33
+11.9%
18.2%US$65.00US$42.00n/a3
Dec ’24US$48.01
US$52.33
+9.0%
18.2%US$65.00US$42.00n/a3
Nov ’24US$50.69
US$56.67
+11.8%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$53.783
Oct ’24US$50.07
US$56.67
+13.2%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$49.453
Sep ’24US$52.34
US$56.67
+8.3%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$50.123
Aug ’24US$52.86
US$56.67
+7.2%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$47.003
Jul ’24US$53.32
US$56.67
+6.3%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$43.823
Jun ’24US$51.15
US$56.67
+10.8%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$43.833
May ’24US$55.75
US$56.67
+1.6%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$46.663
Apr ’24US$48.95
US$56.67
+15.8%
11.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$49.043
Mar ’24US$54.13
US$57.67
+6.5%
10.6%US$65.00US$50.00US$52.193
Feb ’24US$55.06
US$57.50
+4.4%
13.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$49.442
Jan ’24US$51.97
US$57.50
+10.6%
13.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$46.782
Dec ’23US$53.26
US$57.50
+8.0%
13.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$48.012
Nov ’23US$58.31
US$57.50
-1.4%
13.0%US$65.00US$50.00US$50.692

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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