AMERISAFE, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AMSF Stock Report

Market Cap: US$828.2m

AMERISAFE Valuation

Is AMSF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMSF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$55.93
Fair Value
22.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AMSF ($43.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($55.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMSF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMSF?

Key metric: As AMSF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AMSF. This is calculated by dividing AMSF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AMSF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$47.46m
Market CapUS$828.16m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AMSF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AMSF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.6x
ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
22.4xn/aUS$1.1b
UFCS United Fire Group
11x4.68%US$727.6m
DGIC.A Donegal Group
9.8x3.03%US$690.2m
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings
11.1x12.63%US$742.7m
AMSF AMERISAFE
17.4x-7.62%US$828.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AMSF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AMSF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
2.2xn/aUS$116.75m
AIFU AIFU
0.4xn/aUS$23.20m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
AMSF 17.4xIndustry Avg. 14.1xNo. of Companies17PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AMSF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (14.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMSF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMSF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio8.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AMSF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMSF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$43.50
US$56.33
+29.50%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
Jun ’26US$47.47
US$56.33
+18.67%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
May ’26US$45.83
US$57.67
+25.83%
8.99%US$65.00US$54.00n/a3
Apr ’26US$52.70
US$57.67
+9.42%
8.99%US$65.00US$54.00n/a3
Mar ’26US$51.46
US$56.33
+9.47%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
Feb ’26US$50.02
US$56.33
+12.62%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
Jan ’26US$51.54
US$56.33
+9.30%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
Dec ’25US$59.02
US$56.33
-4.55%
11.26%US$65.00US$50.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$53.78
US$55.67
+3.51%
12.65%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Oct ’25US$49.45
US$53.67
+8.53%
14.93%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Sep ’25US$50.12
US$53.67
+7.08%
14.93%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$47.00
US$53.67
+14.18%
14.93%US$65.00US$48.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$43.82
US$56.00
+27.80%
16.07%US$65.00US$47.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$43.83
US$56.00
+27.77%
16.07%US$65.00US$47.00US$47.472
May ’25US$46.66
US$56.00
+20.02%
16.07%US$65.00US$47.00US$45.832
Apr ’25US$49.04
US$54.00
+10.11%
14.58%US$65.00US$47.00US$52.703
Mar ’25US$52.19
US$54.00
+3.47%
14.58%US$65.00US$47.00US$51.463
Feb ’25US$49.44
US$52.33
+5.85%
18.22%US$65.00US$42.00US$50.023
Jan ’25US$46.78
US$52.33
+11.87%
18.22%US$65.00US$42.00US$51.543
Dec ’24US$48.01
US$52.33
+9.01%
18.22%US$65.00US$42.00US$59.023
Nov ’24US$50.69
US$56.67
+11.79%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$53.783
Oct ’24US$50.07
US$56.67
+13.17%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$49.453
Sep ’24US$52.34
US$56.67
+8.27%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$50.123
Aug ’24US$52.86
US$56.67
+7.20%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$47.003
Jul ’24US$53.32
US$56.67
+6.28%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$43.823
Jun ’24US$51.15
US$56.67
+10.79%
11.00%US$65.00US$50.00US$43.833
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
US$56.33
Fair Value
22.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/06/22 14:00
End of Day Share Price 2025/06/20 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

AMERISAFE, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert FarnamBoenning & Scattergood, Inc.
Randy BinnerB. Riley Securities, Inc.
null nullBurkenroad Reports